AA in MP

[ccwhoelse?]

i'm going to assume that button has a gutshot with Ks and Qd.
i'll assume SB has 9s and 8s, although he could also have a T.

1)if i call the turn and the button calls there is 13.5 BB in the pot.
i'll win 13.5BB 85.7% of the time and lose 1 BB 14.3% of the time
EV = 11.43

2)if i raise the turn and the button folds there is 14.5 BB in the pot.
i'll win 14.5 BB 95.5% of the time and lose 2 BB 4.5% of the time
EV = 12.95

obviously this is a simplified analysis. also, if button has QJ he will win about 50% more often that if he had KQ.

this is what i'd like:

raise on the turn: force button to fold and i'll fold if i get 3-bet on the turn or bet into by SB on the river.

------------------------------------------------

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ah 36 85.71 6 14.29 0 0.00 0.857
9s 8s 2 4.76 40 95.24 0 0.00 0.048
Ks Qd 4 9.52 38 90.48 0 0.00 0.095


cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ah 42 95.45 2 4.55 0 0.00 0.955
9s 8s 2 4.55 42 95.45 0 0.00 0.045