QTs in BB, scare card

[Mr. Graff]

I agree, not as clear cut as I made it out in the beginning of this thread. And always beneficial to examine this kind of hand in greater detail.

The reason I think a turn call is not EV+ here is:
1) The discount you need to subtract for the one card straights is significant because you will be splitting the pot a fair number of times when you hit.
2) There are two players in this hand. The discussion has revolved mainly around what one of these players might have. Granted, the MP cold call could be a fishy drawing dead kind of call but more likely it could be either a very strong made hand just waiting for more bets on the river or it could be a strong draw making your outs tainted. And if not a flush draw or a K, then perhaps AQ or a T. Again making a big impact on the odds you need.
3) The turn raise really should be given a lot respect in that game. Some players will only raise with the nuts/near nuts. Both the players in the hand are non-aggressive preflop making it a bit less likely they will be aggressive with mediocre hands post flop. I think this is why in my database the weak/tight players do so well there (best playing style, I'm tempted to think based on those stats). I still think that it is most <i>likely</i> that you only up against an ace one pair/a two pair. But combined with the likelyhood of other possible hands I don't like the odds you are getting on a turn call very much.