JJ hand

[schwza]

last night's UB $20+2 rebuy. i'm about 40 out of 150. top 60 pay.

i've been stealing a decent amount so i thought there was a chance i was getting played back at by a mediocre hand. no read on villain - he hasn't done anything that made me take notice.

bemis is at seat 0 with 11640.
tvhutch is at seat 1 with 21420.
OhioJoe is at seat 2 with 8645.
jsup is at seat 3 with 7135.
MrKurty is at seat 4 with 15125.
dilked it is at seat 5 with 22480.
PaseoX is at seat 6 with 29340.
HERO is at seat 7 with 28680.
okok is at seat 8 with 16495.
Glork is at seat 9 with 8165.
The button is at seat 2.

everyone antes 75.

i have JJ.

MrKurty posts the small blind of 300.
dilked it posts the big blind of 600.
Pre-flop:
PaseoX folds.
HERO raises to 1800.
okok folds.
Glork folds.
bemis folds.
tvhutch folds.
OhioJoe folds.
jsup folds.
MrKurty re-raises to 6750.
dilked it folds.
HERO re-raises to 21600.
MrKurty goes all-in for 15050. (fyi, he started the hand with 15125)

my thinking: suppose he's playing tight. even if he's playing tight, he'll reraise with AK a very high percentage of the time (i think... does anyone disagree?).

suppose he'll reraise with AA-QQ and AK. There are 16 AK's, and i'm 57%. 18 AA-QQ's, and i'm 19%. so the weighted average is that i'm 37%.

he's not going to fold to my push, so just consider his bet a push. money in the pot = his 15050, my 1800, big blind's 600, 750 in antes = 18,200. i have to call 13,250. thus, i need to have 42.1% to make the call right.

so, if he's playing that tight, i should fold. if you include JJ and TT in his range of hands, it becomes marginally positive chipEV. (i'd be 43.5% to win). obviously if he's going to play back with 77 or AT or some such junk, it helps me a ton.

given that you have very little information about how this guy is playing, what's your action here?