What global warming?

[Izverg04]

I don't know much about the science of global climate, but a few cursory facts I picked up years ago have always led me to conclude that the fears of global warming are quite simply demented.

Fact 1. Without a greenhouse effect the Earth surface temperature would be ~40deg C cooler than it is. Picked this up doing a physics problem on blackbody radiation long ago in school. Makes me feel bad for the greenhouse effect and all the bad publicity that it is getting in the press.

Fact 2. Greenhouse effect is caused mostly by water vapor. I've seen numbers that 95% of the greenhouse effect is due to H2O. It's not obvious that 20-30% change in CO2 concentration will have a significant effect on the magnitude of effect.

Fact 3. It is publicized that the global surface temperature has increased by 1deg C over the last century, and that this is due to anthropogenic activity. However, the change in temperature between an ice age and interglacial is something like 6-10 deg C, and I don't think it is well known what causes these wild swings. So it is logical to suppose that these natural variations in climate would dwarf anthropogenic contributions. And even the fact that there's been warming over this century is still under dispute.

Fact 4. "Global warming" is so politicized that reading another media report is like listening to Pentagon announcing another success in the "missile defense" program. I give much less credence to another finding on the "global warming" front than I give, for example, on the subject of universe expansion. No political agenda involved in the latter subject.

Fact 5. I like it when it's warm. I'd be much more scared of the prospect of global cooling.

Anyone feel the same way? Am I way off base?