Final 4 at Commerce Tournament Deal -- Good or Bad?

[zaxx19]

I like Raymer's thinking here as too how best calculate a deals equity but im puzzled at how he believes the original poster's chances at 4th are almost identical too the chip leaders??(10%~11.4%) Maybe i am missing something but if someone could aid me in understanding that it would be appreciated. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]