Value bet this river?

[ecooke]

Saving Private Ryan is a good movie and your numbers look fine.

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If you check, he'll only bet with better hands, because loose-passive players don't bluff rivers like this very often.

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I don't have the data handy so I really can't say. If he always checks with a worse hand (say 50% overall) and always bets the other 50% of the time, we need him to be betting with a worse hand 25% of the time for this to be +EV. I'll take this line against a Bet/Fold giving me -.2BB. Seem completely unreasonable?