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Big Draw versus Weak Home MTT Field
Here's a hand from last night that had me questioning my play-
Home MTT at a friend of a friend's house; first time with this group of guys. 24 Players including a lot of new players I’m told (<3 months exp.) and just a couple of guys that can play the game well. Overall a +EV lineup. The payout structure is top-weighted: 4th gets 5%, 3rd gets 10%, 2nd gets 25%, and 1st gets 60%. Level 5, blinds are 250/500, average stack is 11500, 21 players remaining - 3 tables with 7 players each. I'm in the BB with t14000 and I get 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG folds UTG+1 (An inexperienced LAG with t3000 who has shown down hands like 63o) calls UTG+2 (Seems like an experienced LAG; I can't tell if he is a great player or just lucky with his aggression; he has shown hands like Q2o after getting everybody to fold with a board like AT777 + possible flush, he has t20000) calls MP1 - folds Cutoff - (a Friend of Mine, a pretty good player, and dangerous because you never know when he's making a play for the pot or if he has a real hand, has t12000) calls Button - folds SB - (a Tight newby who calls too much with thin draws, t3000) calls BB - checks. flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players, pot = t2500) SB - checks BB - I have an OESD, a Flush Draw, and a Straight Flush Draw. With the pot at t2500 already, it represents about 18% of my stack, so I think about pushing t13500 - but with 2 weak players and 1 unknown player to act behind me I feel that the chances of getting called with something as small as bottom pair are more than I want to bear. This is a tourney that I really want to avoid going all-in if I can because generally the field is pretty weak. I’m also thinking that if I put in a small bet one of the 2 EP LAGs will probably raise me, so I check. (Comments?) UTG+1 bets t1000 - this bet means nothing to me, because we've already seen this guy bet with nothing several times. UTG+2 raises to t2000 - this guy has already shown us bluffs when he's muscled us out of the pot, so this bet is suspect too - but you wonder when he's going to get a real hand and capitalize on his table image. Cutoff calls t2000. Even though I know this guy, I have no idea what kind of hand he would call t2000 with, except probably a set (slow playing) or a high flush draw. SB folds. BB - with the pot now at t7500, I figure I have the implied odds to call t2000 with just my OESD outs plus I have 9 outs to a flush that I'm not sure about. Again I think about pushing my last t13500 to win the t7500, but against 3 other players in a pretty weak game where I have good reads on 4 of the 6 players at my table, I decide to call and see the turn. (Comments?) UTG+1 calls. Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players, pot = t10500) BB checks - using the same logic as above, I check to see what develops behind me. UTG+1 checks UTG+2 bets 4000 (did the ace help him, or did he flop something crazy like 2 pair with 93o, or is he trying to buy the pot again?) Cutoff calls 4000 (by now I'm sure in my mind that this guy has the nut flush draw, otherwise I'd expect him to be raising here) BB calls – Now I'm thinking my flush outs are no good, but I still have 6 outs to a Straight plus 2 outs to a Straight Flush that could rake a huge pot. With the pot at t18500, I decide to call t4000 thinking I have both the pot odds and the implied odds to do so. I think about pushing my last t11500, but now the chances of getting called are way too high IMO. UTG+1 folds. River is no help UTG+2 goes all-in Cutoff and BB fold. UTG+2 wins 22500 I lost t6000 of my t14000 stack chasing a draw, but at the time each decision seemed correct. Agree or disagree? |
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