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#13
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This is an interesting hand.
First off, the check-raise is clearly the right line out of position with a middle pair and a drawing hand. There is little danger of giving a free card because a free card is good for you as well. The big stack will likely bluff at the pot so you get more chips in the middle and your all-in reraise actually has some fold equity. Now lets think about the line you took. I never know what these BS min-raises mean. Usually they either mean that your opponent is an idiot or they want the call, sometimes both. In this case, you can eliminate any kind of pure flush draw and he literally can't have any pair with a flush draw as well. That likely means he has something like top pair. I put him on A9, K9, A8, maybe even K8. I guess he could also have a set of 4s. I would have thought that four hand he would have played 88 or 99 for a preflop raise. Assuming he has a better pair, you have an awful lot of outs. Any club, J and maybe even an 8. Only assuming the J is good you are still at about 50% to win the hand (12/47 with two draws). The only question is do you call now and see another card before pushing your stack or just push now. If you wait, your decision will be whether to call ~600 into an 1800 pot which is roughly your odds to draw a winner on the river. If you push now your folding equity is essentially zero because the big stack is going to call unless he is on a stone cold bluff which it is hard to believe he is due to the mini-raise. I think that I call here and see another card. Folding on the turn with 600 chips left gives you a decent chance to get into the money with two other short stacks. But the numbers say that this one is probably pretty close and you could play it either way. Folding is an awful choice. |
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