Pot odds all in

[KdoubleK]

I recently had an idea about NL tournament theory and was curious about what you all think about it. Here goes. In NL tourneys, when faced with a decision for all or nearly all your chips, pot odds should no longer play an important role in your decision making. Rather, your immediate odds of winning compared with how winning, losing, or giving up the pot effect your chances for survival should be the factors shaping your decision. Here is an example taken directly from cardplayer mag:

In Bellagio’s Five-Diamond Poker Classic World Poker Tour $10,000 buy-in championship event, the following amazing hand came up late during day No. 2. The first raise was $3,500 to go by Player X, and Amir Vahedi made it $10,000 to go with pocket tens. The man right behind Amir, Player Y, then moved all in, and then Juha Helppi studied for three minutes before going all in from the big blind for $35,500 total. The first raiser, Player X, then moved all in, and the action was back to Amir. Three people had just moved all in, and now it would cost $25,500 more for him to call — and he had $30,000 left. Amir studied and studied, and finally pushed in the money to call! Juha flipped up A-A, Player X had Q-Q, and Player Y had A-K offsuit. The flop came down J-10-2, then a 9, followed by a 7, and Amir won the monstrous pot with three tens.

Despite winning the pot here though, I think Amir made a tremendous mistake. Yes, he was getting almost even money pot odds on a pair over pair situation (which he surely knew it was) but the pot odds mean nothing when A) chips do not directly represent real money in long term expectation, and b) winning the pot does not so significantly increase his tournament expectation as to warrant taking 4.5:1 chance at getting knocked out. In fact, one could argue that to truly be getting "even money" on the gamble Amir would have to reach a level on the pay ladder that paid close to 5 times the buy in for every 1 time he wins this all in confrontation. Making close gambles for all your chips because the pot odds are laying you the right price only really matters when the real money expectation is immediate, such as at the final table. Flame away!