Marginal hand analysis 2flush+2big cards

The Marginal hand analysis of starting hands that contain two big cards and a two flush.


Synopsis : The first of a series of analyses of marginal starting hands.


The starting hand of two big cards with a two flush is one of my favorite marginal starting hands. I often play it both in ring games, and in tournaments. (Especially when I am playing in "crap shoot tournaments" See Mc Evoy's section on this topic in his book on tournament play)


And I also like to play this hand in loose ring games, which are characterized by a minimal amount of raising. (see loose passive game considerations in 7csfap 21)


The hand (Qh 9s) Kh would be a good example of this sub group of marginal starting hands


The characteristics that I look for are:


1. I want a live King Since much of the strength of the hand comes from


the King if another King is out I simply won't play


the hand.


2. I want a live flush draw I define a live flush draw as one, in which there


are no more than one flush card out. In this case


if there were 2 or more hearts out in other


Players hands I would not play the hand.


3. I want the Queen or 9 to be live If there is one 9 or one Queen out I feel


that the hand is still marginally playable


but if 2 are out I feel that the hand is


unplayable.(many good players insist


on both the 9 and the Queen being live.


4. I want to pay no more If the betting has been competed on third than the bring in, to play street or if I detect a possible raise behind

in this hand me I will not play the hand.*


* A powerful Stud tool (that I learned playing hold'em) is to always keep an eye on the two opponents on my right.(This is especially important in hold'em because if you can detect that your opponents aren't going to play their hands, you can often double the relative number of times that you have the button) Having trained myself to do this, when I play Hold'em, when I returned to stud it had already become an integral part of my game.


I feel that this technique is very important in marginal hand play. Because you REALLY DO NOT want to come into a hand and have the hand raised behind you. My technique (modified from John Foxe's) is to practice watching the HAND motions of the two players to my right, using only my peripheral vision. I have found this technique to be about 90% effective. And if you do this discreetly your opponents should not be aware that you are continualy monitoring their calling hands.


(Qh 9s) Kh


One of the things that I like about this hand, is that if it turns out that there are a relative large number of callers, then the flush component increases in value, and if there are only a few callers then the "Big Cards, pair draws" increase in value.


Requirements for continuing with the hand past fourth street


First you have to have improved on fourth street to be able to call a bet. If your cards are live by rank, you will have paired one of your cards approx 24% of the time, and if your flush draw is live you will hit one of your flush cards approx. 22% of the time.


Fourth street action strategy


1. If I hit my King or Queen, I of course, usually want to do what ever it takes to isolate my hand. I there by theoretically increase the probability of my winning the hand.*


* The key to playing this marginal starting hand, as a "multiple big pair draw," is the residual strength that big pair hands have on fourth street..


The relevant mathematics of fourth street "Big Pair" hands pair hands.


( Remember that when you start with a live pair of Kings, your hand will improve approx 65% of the time. (I am not positive of that percentage but it is very close. "The poker playing philosopher, Ray Zee, is quoted as saying "never trust an old man's memory for numbers")


BUT, and this is the key, when you start with a live King and you pair your King on fourth (and your cards stay live) you will still improve 62% of the time by the river. ( I am certain of that number Ray "it's out of a book so it HAS to be right!)


So when you pair a big card, you STILL have a relatively strong hand on fourth street, and you should play it as such.


2. If I hit my 9, I use the same strategy that I would if I started with a pair of 9s with both a King and a Queen kicker.


3. If my flush has improved to a three flush, Approximately 66% of the time I am going to continue to fifth street with my hand.


I seem to remember reading SOME WHERE, that you should usually continue with your 3 flush on fourth street "If your flush draw is live, If it contains big cards, If your odds are good, or If you also have straight possibilities"


OH! NOW I REMEMBER, where I saw it. (see page 269, 7csfaps 21,

I might point out that, that this is the only place that I have ever seen this valuable advice printed, in any of the published Stud literature)


And I calculate that I have made well over $1,000 dollars off this one tip alone. And yet I feel that I owe Ray and Mason nothing, since I have purchased 3 copies of 7csfap since 1989. ( so it sounds like we are about even, to me)


When to get away from the hand


I have already discussed several critical points about playing this marginal starting hand. But one of the most important points, is that you must be a good enough player, to muck the hand, if your opponents boards and or actions become dangerous on fourth street.( Not doing this is the main reason novice players loose money playing all of the members of the marginal hand complex.)


Examples of dangerous fourth street conditions would include :


1. When a player pairs his door card and comes out betting.


2. When a player spikes an ace and comes out betting.


3. You hit your two flush draw making a 3 flush draw, but you are looking at an opponents possible bigger 4 flush draw. If you aren't waving good bye, if a bet is made under these conditions, you should never play this category of hands


4. When a player bets and a player with "rags " raises (You may already be "badly beaten already" in this situation.)


5. When a player bets in front of you, and you have one or more dangerous boards behind you. Examples would include when you are sandwiched between. (suited connectors, paired door cards, and or new over cards.)


Summary :


If you are going to "really" make money at Stud, you have to be able to play marginal starting hands. And you have play them extremely well.


The most important points concerning this hand is to know when not to play it, and to know when to get away from it.


If you try adding marginal starting hands to your strategic arsenal of plays, and you find that you are loosing money playing them (that's what originally happened to me) back up, slow down and after a while try reintroducing them into your strategy, one at a time.


Marginal starting hand play now makes up a significant portion of the profit I generate each year from playing Stud.


I would appreciate any opinions and or criticisms from the forum members.


I also would appreciate learning the opinions of our the other forum members concerning this interesting class of starting hands. And as to whether they play them, and if so which ones.


In particular it would be interesting to know what you feel is the weakest marginal starting hand that you can play and have it be profitable for you over a long period of time.


As I said this topic it isn't covered fully in any book, because the topic is simply so complex, that you could write an entire book on this one topic alone.


Well that's one Marginal starting hand down. Now we only have a half dozen or so more to review.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ