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Is this play too aggressive?
Please tell me what you think of this play.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font> Button (t565) <font color="C00000">SB (t35)</font> BB (t825) UTG (t2630) <font color="C00000">Hero (t775)</font> <font color="C00000">MP1 (t740)</font> MP2 (t785) CO (t1645) Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls t15, Hero calls t15, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, CO calls t15, Button calls t15, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t35 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t20, UTG calls t20, Hero calls t20, MP1 calls t20, MP2 calls t20, CO calls t20, Button calls t20. Flop: (t280) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(8 players, 1 all-in)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets t300</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t740 (All-In)</font>, MP1 calls t405 (All-In). Turn: (t1725) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font> River: (t1725) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t1725 <font color="green">Main Pot: t280 (t280), between SB, Hero and MP1.</font> > <font color="white">Pot won by MP1 (t280).</font> <font color="green">Pot 2: t1410 (t1410), between Hero and MP1.</font> > <font color="white">Pot won by MP1 (t1410).</font> <font color="green">Pot 3: t35 (t35), returned to Hero.</font> Results in white below: <font color="white"> SB has Qc 4c (one pair, tens). Hero has Kh Ah (one pair, tens). MP1 has Ac Tc (three of a kind, tens). Outcome: MP1 wins t1690. Hero wins t35. </font> It was early on and blinds were low, and this is definitely a more aggressive play than I think I normally make but I decided to go for it for several reasons: (1) I was playing a $10+1 and therefore was willing to play a little looser than normal (2) I figured there was a good chance he was betting a flush draw. Given these factors I decided to go for it. At first I thought it might actually be a bad call, but then when I thought about it more and counted my outs, 9 hearts, 4 kings, and 4 aces without knowing what he has and I think it might have been more reasonable. Then consulting twodimes i saw the statistics were: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=516495 pokenum -h ah kh - ac tc -- th 6h 3d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3d Th 6h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ah Kh 461 46.57 529 53.43 0 0.00 0.466 Ac Tc 529 53.43 461 46.57 0 0.00 0.534 And even though those odds are actually higher than I thought they might be knowing he had TPTK I am not sure if it was too agressive or not. Also, do you consider this a good call with TPTK? I most likely would've have bet the exact same way with an overpair. Any thoughts? Will |
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