Sticky Casino Bonus

[mmanne]

Hi Everyone,
I got an email recently for a stick Casino bonus that I am not going to try, but others might want to. It was from USA Casino (usacasino.com) for a deposit 300 get 555 added. I asked Homer his thoughts on it, and I'll post them here (When I asked, it was unclear whether it was a sticky bonus or not, but I've since talked with their support and it's definitely sticky). If you have any questions, I'd point you to bonuswhores.com's casino section.

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Hi Matt:

This is either a great or okay bonus, and I'm not quite sure which due
to the poor wording of their terms and conditions.

If the bonus is not sticky, then it is a great deal, with a 8XWR,
blackjack allowed. Your EV will be $520.8 with a low standard
deviation (even if you bet $10/hand, the SD will be much lower than EV,
at $300.76). I'm inclined to think the bonus is sticky, though, since
it is nearly unheard of for a casino to offer a 8XWR, blackjack
allowed, with a huge deposit bonus in this day and age.

If it is sticky (meaning that the bonus is removed when you request a
withdrawal), then it is merely an okay bonus. Basically, your strategy
would be to bet normally until having wagered a total of $6840 (average
loss would be $34.20, given a HA of 0.5% for BJ). Then, you'd have an
average of $820.80 left, at which point you'd make a house limit bet of
$500. 48% of the time you'd win and have $1320.80 left and could cash
out for a $465.80 profit. 52% of the time you'd lose and have $320.80
left, at which point you'd bet it all again. If you win, you'll have
$641.60 for a profit of $86.60. This will occur about about 25% of the
time (a loss then a win). If you lose, you'll have $0, for a loss of
$300. This will occur about 27% of the time (a loss then a loss).

So, your EV will be $465.80*.48 + $86.60*.25 + -$300*.27 = $164.23.
That's certainly nice, but your SD will be quite high due to the
volatile nature of sticky bonuses. So, unless you have a large
bankroll, you'll probably want to pass on this bonus.

Feel free to copy this reply to 2+2 if the topic comes up there.

-- Later, Homer


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