JJ all in raise in EP, near bubble --- berate me if you will.

[fnurt]

I think these are very useful calculations and you will probably learn a lot from doing them.

I think a gain of 4k has to be a gain in prize pool terms as well. Keep in mind the money is generally weighted towards the final table and the top 3. The difference between finishing just in the money, and bubbling out, is relatively insignificant in the long run.

I think your assumptions were probably too conservative in this case, which makes the decision even clearer. There is a reasonable probability of TT and 99 calling here; assign it whatever chance you like, but it adds a lot to your EV.

I also don't think it's clear that AK will always call. In this case, LP had a reasonably comfortable 16xBB if he folded, plus he was calling an all-in bet so he had no folding equity. In this situation, with a limper and an all-in in front of you, there are at least some players who would let AK go. Indeed, putting the math aside for the moment, one of the reasons to push with this hand is to force hands like AK to make the tough decision, rather than playing wimpy and ending up with the decision yourself.