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bottom set facing 2 all-ins. Odds to call?
Party 30+3, about 15 hands in.
MP probably plays his made hands a little more strongly than he should but nothing too ridiculous. If he's calling a re-re-re-raise all-in, let's give him credit for KJ. No read on SB. At best, I'm against two made straights or a straight and a flush draw. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter saw flop SB (t1171) BB (t755) UTG (t212) UTG+1 (t835) MP1 (t1057) MP2 (t565) Hero (t1600) CO (t1070) Button (t735) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks. Flop: (t120) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets t30</font>, BB calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1141 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls t852 (All-In), Hero... My equity: vs KJ and QT: 11% vs KJ and J8: 35% (30-31% if either of them is suited in spades) vs KJ and KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: 31% vs KJ and TT: 5% There's also the miniscule chance that I'm up against something wacky like A5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and QJ, but I don't think that happens often enough to matter here. I'm getting 3.5:1 on my call. I need to win about 29% of the time to make this +chipEV. The side pot with the SB would be fairly small (228 chips including the ones I'd put in), but of the two it's more possible he has a flush draw or 2 pair. I stand to win a little more often against him than I do against MP, so I can probably bump that 29% down to 26-27% or so. If I call and win I have over 3000 chips and 3x the next stack, and I've been feeling good about my big-stack play as of late. If I call and lose I'm left with about 450, which is certainly playable at 15/30 blinds. If I fold, I'm left with 1150 and I'm second in chips behind whoever takes down this pot. Is this a call? If not, what odds would you need? Also, how's my reraise on the flop? |
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