Got greedy and put myself in a tough spot.

SkippingGoat · #1 08-04-2004, 10:55 AM

What's your play on the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 5 handed)

BB ($62.50)
UTG ($185.10)
MP ($131)
Hero ($53.25)
SB ($45.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $4, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $4.

Checked to me on the button w/ top pair. Standard bet.

Turn: ($12.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Not too thrilled to have gotten a caller with my kicker so I decide against sticking more chips in the pot on the turn.

River: ($12.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3, MP raises to $30

I bet on the end because the paired 3's mercifully took my kicker out of play. I thought there was a good chance I'd get called by a king which is more or less what I put this guy on at this point. When he lashes out with a raise to $30 I of course instantly regretted the bet.

Read:
This guy had made some big bets in the past that hadn't been called so I don't know how to read him. He'd been pretty quiet for the last 50 or so hands.

Thoughts:
1) He could have read my $3 bet as weak (it was) and hoped to take the pot from me with any two cards.

2) He could also have an ace and potentially knock me out of the pot with the same hand that he's holding.

3) I'm somewhat sceptical that he has a 3. If he called the flop he would have had to have had 23, K3, or A3. I find it unlikely that he'd check to me twice, first with two pair, then with a boat, risking that I check behind on the river.

4) He could be slowplaying 22 (he probably would have raised AA, KK, or AK preflop).

I hate paying off big, out-of-line, bets on the end. But it's hard to fold here.

Thoughts?

SpiderMnkE · #2 08-04-2004, 11:12 AM

wow.. I dont think you can call this. That is a lot to risk for the not so huge pot.

If he has an A then he earned this pot. It's possible that he limped 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I can't imagine you are ahead here... and it sounds like you are gunna try to call $30 for a split.

It seems obvious that you have to fold... if he's making a move... then he's making a move... but it will be expensive to find out with very little reward for the lookup.

PokerFink · #3 08-04-2004, 11:14 AM

First of all, a great article was written on the weak lead by Negreanu for card player. Link.

Ok. So, what does your opponent put you on? Likely a pair of kings or aces with a weak kicker that just got saved. The flop bet followed by a check is generally going to be either a slowplay or a slowdown because of a bad kicker, and since there isn't really any made hands on this board (besides a low set), what could you be slowplaying? There is no way the $3 is a bluff, because it's so small.

If he puts you on an ace or king and he has an ace, then he is making a fantastic raise to take the whole pot from you instead of splitting. If he has a king, then he is just seeing you're bet as weak and trying to steal it from you, even though he knows that if you call his king is no good. It's very unlikely that anyone here has AK in a limped pot with so little action.

I would call the bet, or if you want to feel really, really gutsy, re-raise him all-in. You're likely to split in this spot, since it would seem that you both have ace-rag, and if you want to take the chance, you could try to steal that whole $30 bet by moving in over the top of him. Could be disasterous, but also could end up being a brilliant move. This is such an obvious bluffing situation that you shoulden't fold, especially because if he has an ace, he figures he won't do worse than split.

PokerFink · #4 08-04-2004, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wow.. I dont think you can call this. That is a lot to risk for the not so huge pot.

If he has an A then he earned this pot. It's possible that he limped 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I can't imagine you are ahead here... and it sounds like you are gunna try to call $30 for a split.

It seems obvious that you have to fold... if he's making a move... then he's making a move... but it will be expensive to find out with very little reward for the lookup.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he limped with 45, do you really think he would play it like this? No one is going to check the nuts on the river after the turn checks around!!!

I just can't think of a hand that he can have that beats the aces up. No one would check pocket dueces three times like that. No one would check AK three times like that. So what can he have that wins?!

You know what, the more I think about it, the more I think I would move all-in over the top of him and watch him muck his cards in disgust. I think 97/100 times, moving all-in would be a fantastic move that wins you the whole pot!

Quick Edit: You only have an extra $15 over his $30 bet, so if you're going to call and look to split or beat a king, you might as well go all in and take a shot at the whole pot. It's definitly worth the extra $15 if you decide to atleast call.

Raiser · #5 08-04-2004, 12:30 PM

[disclaimer] I'm still pretty new to this NL thing, so my advice could be way off??? Feel free to flame me if I say something stupid [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [/disclaimer]

I think if you're going to bet the river here you should make a more substantial bet. If I decided to bet I'd probably go to at least $8 or so.

But in this case, I think I'd just check behind on the river. You feel pretty good about your hand after the 3 comes on the river, but you can't feel good facing a substantial raise so I don't think I'd give him the chance to bluff at the pot.

PokerFink · #6 08-04-2004, 12:59 PM

Raiser, you're absolutly right. Weak bets on the river are just begging for a strong raise, doubly so if you're first to act. If you're going to bet the $3, you have to be prepared for a raise.

I would still love for someone else to comment on my all-in move.

SpiderMnkE · #7 08-04-2004, 01:24 PM

Yikes dude... yikes

Maybe you are right... but don't say no one would check twice with the nuts or near... cuz they do it.

PokerFink · #8 08-04-2004, 05:39 PM

Thats true, but I can't fathom somone calling a pot bet on the flop with an inside straight draw, and checking it twice after miracling a three on the turn, especially after the turn checked around. If you're going to miracle that card, get some money out of it!!!

In my opinion, I would rather be outplayed in this situation by someone who checked 4-5 twice, or checked AK THREE times, and got me to re-raise all in than get outplayed by someone who made a big raise in an obvious bluffing situation with a split or losing hand. It's just such an obvious bluffing situation, especially if you're opponent has the split ace, that I think 97/100 times he won't have 22, AK, 45.

SpiderMnkE · #9 08-05-2004, 11:27 AM

Goat,

Did you fold?

SkippingGoat · #10 08-05-2004, 12:38 PM

I called fully expecting to split the pot (while bracing myself for the worst) and was more than pleasantly suprised to "scoop" when the raiser flipped over 77. My guess is that he was pissed that he couldn't show down his hand free and retaliated with the out of line raise.

I think almost all good players have at one point or another vowed to stop paying off rediculous river bets with marginal holdings. I mean these fish could be holding any two cards. Trying to tell yourself that he couldn't possibly be holding "xyz" because he did "abc" earlier in the hand often just ends up costing you money. Why try to reasonably understand the behavior on an unreasonable player? As such, my knee jerk reaction was to fold as SpiderMnkE recommended. However, in this situation, I just couldn't imagine him checking a big hand to me on the river after it had checked through on the turn. It just didn't make sense that he would have a 3. I think 45 is the only reasonable hand that he could be holding to beat me but as PokerFink pointed out, this is a pretty unlikely hand.

Should I have pushed? If I thought I could fold out another ace I think it would be worth it but I find it hard to imagine the villain folding for $15 more when the pot is $70+. Combined with the probability that he calls when he's beat and the possibility that I'm beat makes a push more or less neutral EV in my opinion.