Not An Ethics Question

[jrobb83]

$22.13

[Nomar]

From what I have seen in B+M casino's any expert can beat a 10-20 for much more than 20hr

[Tosh]

I don't see it making any difference, $20 still.

[David Sklansky]

I'm guessing it would be over $30, if you really played it right. Now those of you who want can start elaborating.

[mike l.]

"I'm guessing"

well you got this part right at least.

im debating in my mind whether this one is more or less absurd than your 44 is better than 77 thread.

[China Willy]

This happens to me all the time. Quite frankly, its usually notable to me when I'm *not* in a game where I'm seated immediately to the right of the only other expert at the table as he undetectably views a loose-aggressive player's hole cards and uses the information perfectly.

Perhaps you might elaborate David on some of the principles behind an optimal strategy in this situation so I am not led astray by other posters' attempts to discern your thinking on this one. The 44 vs. 77 post really drove home the dangers of that, and now I just don't know *what* to believe.

-CW

[joker122]

How could the answer to this question not be an arbitary number? I suppose I don't have a full grasp of EV.

[Senor Choppy]

I don't buy a 1/2 bb/hour increase in winrate in the least, I would suspect it's closer to an extra $1/hour, if that. Even the expert might not see an increase like this.

Of course, it might be argued that you have more of an advantage than him because he isn't aware of what you're aware of, but that seems highly unlikely.

It's hard to imagine how you'd exploit something like this to begin with. If the player revealing his hole cards raises and the expert folds, what does that tell you? Did the expert look over and see AA and fold his KK, or did he see the guy stealing with JTo while he had 83o? If both limp, again, what does that tell you?

The only situation that seems possible to exploit would be the expert raising after the other player limped or raised himself. You would be able to play a lot more hands than usual because the raiser could be attempting to isolate the other player just because he has a dominating hand, maybe J5o after the other guy limped with 65s. Even with this advantage, you're going to need a somewhat decent hand to play here, maybe your top 20% of hands.

So in order to gain any kind of edge, the guy showing his hand has to play the hand, the expert has to raise, and you have to have something somewhat playable assuming people still have to act behind you. How often does this occur? Not very often, especially in B&M play when you're only seeing 30 hands an hour. $10/hour is impossible here.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing it would be over $30, if you really played it right. Now those of you who want can start elaborating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your answer is ridiculous if for no other reason than you, the mediocre player exposing his cards, and the other expert will rarely all be contesting the same pot. On the rare occassions that all three of you are in the same hand, it seems likely that several other players will be in the hand and you'll have to deal with them as well.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Your answer is ridiculous if for no other reason than you, the mediocre player exposing his cards, and the other expert will rarely all be contesting the same pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's enough to show how insane $30/hour would be. Even if the 3 of you are playing 25% of your hands preflop, you'll all have a playable hand at once 1 in 80 deals, so once every 2 to 3 hours. You can change this to 50% for the guy exposing his cards, 25% for the expert, and 25% for yourself and you're still at 1 hand in 32.

I'm anxious to see which assumptions David changes to work his way out of this one [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This entire thread reminds me of how much blackjack players overestimate the potential effect of knowing the dealer's down card.