$33 AJs shove

bones · #1 12-06-2005, 09:08 PM

Table is somewhat donkish, but nobody is in any hurry to give away their chips. Villian fits right in, although his range for raising here is pretty wide.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t1545)
SB (t1680)
BB (t655)
UTG (t1345)
MP (t1075)
Hero (t1700)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t600, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1700 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG calls t745 (All-In).

Flop: (t3345) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t3345) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3345) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3345

After I pushed this, I winced a little bit. Compelling reasons for pushing or folding?

tigerite · #2 12-06-2005, 09:09 PM

If his range for raising here is pretty wide, it's an insta shove. Trust your reads. I suspect you'll be far ahead of his range here enough to make this +$EV.

tigerite · #3 12-06-2005, 09:13 PM

Even when he calls here, your winrate only has to be ~56%. I am sure it will be with AJs given your read. I mean even if he never folds, his range can be 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+ ?

pineapple888 · #4 12-06-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If his range for raising here is pretty wide, it's an insta shove. Trust your reads. I suspect you'll be far ahead of his range here enough to make this +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This better be one heck of a read, because AJs is not real strong here.

I don't have pokerstove in front of me, but is Villain really raising UTG with weak Aces and pairs? Or am I missing something here?

tigerite · #5 12-06-2005, 09:17 PM

Against a decent opponent I agree. Against a donk this (his range) can be any pretty cards or any ace. That seems to fit right in with the 20% range needed to push over the top for me? The only hands you don't want to see if he calls are a pair or obviously AK/AQ.

bones · #6 12-06-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This better be one heck of a read, because AJs is not real strong here.

I don't have pokerstove in front of me, but is Villain really raising UTG with weak Aces and pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

It definitely wasn't some sort of ninja read. Just what I'd picked up on his hands and playing style. His range almost definitely included A9, KJ, 55 there, if not a few others.

AQ is usually my cutoff for pushing there, but I've been trying to get a little more aggressive.

ilya · #7 12-06-2005, 09:37 PM

I think this is real marginal as he's raising half his stack UTG....you don't really think he's much looser than something like 66+, A8+, KT+, QJ here, do you?

I'd probably push or fold here depending on how much of an advantage I felt having a huge stack would give me at this table.

TT or AQs, I shove for sure.

p.s. if i somehow *knew* it would be exactly break-even, I would lean towards shoving.

pineapple888 · #8 12-06-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This better be one heck of a read, because AJs is not real strong here.

I don't have pokerstove in front of me, but is Villain really raising UTG with weak Aces and pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

It definitely wasn't some sort of ninja read. Just what I'd picked up on his hands and playing style. His range almost definitely included A9, KJ, 55 there, if not a few others.

AQ is usually my cutoff for pushing there, but I've been trying to get a little more aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, you still also have three to act preflop, and one of them could wake up with AA or KK (or other hands that dominate you, if they are donks).

Looks break-even at best to me, but you were the one at the table, so I suppose you have to go with it.

tigerite · #9 12-06-2005, 09:45 PM

I think AJs is a push first-in here, so I'm not gonna start worrying about if they wake up with a monster when I'm pushing over a raiser [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

pineapple888 · #10 12-06-2005, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think AJs is a push first-in here, so I'm not gonna start worrying about if they wake up with a monster when I'm pushing over a raiser [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, but that's not the situation here, because you are now second into the pot.

My point remains.

But whatever. On to the next one...