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#42
11-14-2005, 10:08 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now.
Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn? I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot. 
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#43
11-14-2005, 10:12 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now. Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn? I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot. [/ QUOTE ] My work here is done. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#45
11-14-2005, 10:18 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now. Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn? I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot. [/ QUOTE ] My work here is done. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] damn. I actually definitely would have bet this river, but I think it's wrong. Thats the type of little thing I make mistakes with a lot. [censored]. FWIW This is a fantastic hand to discuss MLG.
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#46
11-14-2005, 10:24 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW This is a fantastic hand to discuss MLG. [/ QUOTE ] I just want to add my thanks as well. I have a "real" job unfortuantely and don't get to play nearly at all as much as I'd like, and for my time here, I feel my playing time and knowledge is lacking FAR behind. But I learn a TON from threads like this, only hope I can catch up one of these days!
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#47
11-14-2005, 10:25 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Not sure if the amount of big bets has any relevance in this hand though, it isn't limit. [/ QUOTE ] just my way of saying that this pot doesn't need a sweetener on the end... value-betting a pot of this size requires risking a significant % of your chips (if this pot was around 1000-1500, it wouldn't be nearly as dangerous)... [/ QUOTE ] I can agree with checking because someone might be slowplaying and we are real behind, and not many hands will call a bet that we have beat right now. But I can't see the argument of missing a value bet simply because the pot is already large. [/ QUOTE ] that's not really what i'm saying (in this hand, i don't think there's a value bet to be made)-- i'm saying that the size of the pot does affect the dynamic of river play in nlhe tournies... if this pot is 1000-1200 and MLG feels he's in a spot to value-bet, then he can throw in 400-500 on the end... if he's check-raised to 1200-1500, it's still possible to get to showdown (if he chooses to do so)... with 5800 in the pot, a value bet has to be at least 1500-2000 and a check-raise will be at least 4000-5000 (some players will even chack-raise here with air), making a showdown practically impossible (unless you're DAMN sure your hand is good)... i guess i'm just saying that the larger the pot, the higher my degree of certainty has to be in order to value-bet (barring any reads, of course)...
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#48
11-14-2005, 10:37 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
And it's not necessarily that Bax can't have a worse hand, it's that Bax won't call MLG's river bet with a worse hand so if there's downside with no upside why make it. [/ QUOTE ] I have problem with this, but no real facts to back it up. If you argue he would bet 10s through 8s on the turn, then I believe he would have some potential to call a certain bet on the river. The problem is, I don't think he bets 8s through 10s on the turn, so I think you fold the turn. Finally, doesnt his call on the river tell you something about his calling range? Or do you think that was as low as he would go? (I don't. Do you see why?)
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#49
11-14-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
edit- or maybe he has a decent kicker but is checking for pot control, w/e. I don't see you having the best hand here, or being called by a worse hand often. [/ QUOTE ] Wouldn't a blocking bet be a better way of exersizing pot control? How is
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#50
11-14-2005, 10:50 PM
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Re: Johnny Bax plays live too
[ QUOTE ]
Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn? [/ QUOTE ] I think there are several hands he bets the flop with that we are ahead of. At the same time, I think MLG realized that this is a way ahead/way behind hand which could be why he just called and didn't raise - control the pot size if we're behind and let him fire again if by chance we're ahead. On the turn, it certainly get's more complicated. But I do think he could bet the turn with TT-88. He might be thinking that MLG is setting him up for a semi-bluff, or that MLG's on a draw. There are hands that he'll fire again with and I think we call because we're getting 3 to 1 on our money and that's certainly good enough against his range. Edit: In addition, if he has something like 76 or 87 we actually have 38% pot equity primarily because of the possibility of a split pot. And those types of 7x hands are certainly more likely than something like Q7 or J7. If we give him a range of TT-88, A7s-K7s, 87-76, 75s we're a pretty big favorite. If we reduce the chance that he has TT-88 by 50% (keeping the other hand combinations) we're still a favorite.
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