#1
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simple EV calculation
HU on the river and I'm first to act, I want to compare the EV of betting to that of check/calling.
Board:A3342 (no flush possibility) I hold AT and am first to act My opponents range: AJ (8ways),AQ(8),AK(8),KK(6),QQ(6) Assume if I bet he never raises me. X=%he calls with KK,QQ Y=% he calls with AJ,AQ,AK EV betting= X(12/36)(+1) + Y(24/36)(-1) P=% he bets KK,QQ if I check Z=% he bets AJ,AQ,AK if I check EV check/call=P(12/36)(+1) + Z(24/36)(-1) Is this right? |
#2
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Re: simple EV calculation
You have only accounted for the EV of the last bet, not what was in the pot before the river card was dealt.
You also win 12/36 times the preriver pot. If you bet, you get an additional (1-Y)(24/36) of that pot as well. |
#3
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Re: simple EV calculation
If I decide the pot is big enough that I have to go to showdown, I can ignore that part?
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