AA on a scary board. Can I raise this river?

[Stealthy]

My HUGE blunder here was not realising that MP2 was virtually allin - he only had 25 cents left on the river it was him that put me off the raise as I had no idea what he had although I was sure I had rivered the other guy! In the cold light of day the raise is a must but I totally wimped out and called! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

MP2 put his last 25 cents in and showed K7!! MP3 showed QQ and I had put a beat on him after he out-flopped me. At the time I was just pleased to win but then annoyed at my not noticing MP2s stack and leaving money on the table. I could have created a side-pot in case MP2 did have a ten or baby flush!

[imported_Reaction]

Raise the river.

Does hero cap a MP3 3-bet? Overcall a MP2 3-bet?

Edit to ask:
[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've raised the flop too.


[/ QUOTE ] gharp, Why do you say this?

[istewart]

River is a supereasy raise given the fact that 1) you're assured MP2's money, 2) MP2 can't 3-bet you with a ten, and 3) you have MP3 beaten ~100% of the time.

[Stealthy]

I think I played the entire hand like a puss!

[Stealthy]

[ QUOTE ]
River is a supereasy raise given the fact that 1) you're assured MP2's money, 2) MP2 can't 3-bet you with a ten, and 3) you have MP3 beaten ~100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I know I am so embarrased (even if I can't spell it!). I only saw he was allin AFTER the hand had finished. The joys of multi-tabling I was winning an AJ hand at the same time if I remember right and was fliting between the 2. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have raised on the flop to find out where I am. That would make the river raise question easier to answer.

EDIT: I would raise the river because I would be surprised he capped pf with a hand that had a 10 in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising this flop for information is bad poker. This is because the information from that raise can be unreliable, and you can often deduce the same information with a little hand reading for free. You see the edit I made bold? You were able to glean all the information you needed based on prior action without needing to raise. You should only ever raise because it's +EV. I would strongly recommed reading this classic post by NPA.

[imported_Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
he will fold a piece rarely, but since we do have around 45% equity against an MP3 range of AK, JJ+

[/ QUOTE ] How much equity is gained if he folds? 5% at most. Spending 2-3sb(most likely 3) to gain 0.73sb doesn't seem right.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he will fold a piece rarely, but since we do have around 45% equity against an MP3 range of AK, JJ+

[/ QUOTE ] How much equity is gained if he folds? 5% at most. Spending 2-3sb(most likely 3) to gain 0.73sb doesn't seem right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's tough. Just looking over this though (this range may be too wide, but given the read I think it's okay).


Board: Kc Jh Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.5957 % 27.99% 05.61% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 52.2674 % 47.40% 04.86% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 14.1369 % 12.99% 01.14% { 99-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K7s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KJo-K8o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

Clearly MP2 will not fold all of these hands on the flop though, so let's say the following are the hands he will fold on the flop if we raise:


Board: Kc Jh Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.7089 % 32.79% 05.92% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 52.9315 % 47.01% 05.92% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 08.3596 % 08.17% 00.19% { 99-22, Q7s+, J9s-J7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, Q8o+, J9o-J8o, 97o+, 87o }

These hands have 8.4% equity and comprise about half of his total hand range. If he folds...

Board: Kc Jh Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.5606 % 37.44% 06.12% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 56.4394 % 50.32% 06.12% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

So it looks like we gain 5% in equity half of the time we raise. (.05)*(14) = .7 SBs. It looks like you might be right after all.

Of course, you may have been right from the beginning. A guy who calls all these bets preflop is not folding a KQJ flop unless he's drawing completely dead.

Good points, although I'm not still totally sure either way.

Also, I'm not taking into account future bets, which may be an error (I think it is).

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

Does hero cap a MP3 3-bet? Overcall a MP2 3-bet?

Edit to ask:
[ QUOTE ]
I think you could've raised the flop too.


[/ QUOTE ] gharp, Why do you say this?



[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry - I saw this a bit late. Other people have already answered this but I like raising this flop b/c I think there's a good chance we're ahead and we can put some pressure on MP2. The pf capper looks like a TAG, but the stats are over a small sample (and even with the stats his PFR is high). So I'm not ready to narrow his range down to AA/KK/QQ/AK yet. (Even if I was, there's something like 7 AK+AA combos and 6 total of the others).


And I don't see Hero capping an MP3 3-bet on the river. He could crying-overcall an MP2 3-bet. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[imported_Reaction]

I liked your thinking in coming up with those numbers. Mine maybe was ad hoc.

Other thoughts:
Right now our share is 33% - maybe giving us a slight equity edge. Knocking out MP2 gives us 50% and an equity deficit.

Maybe our equity is going to drop on a blank turn to about 30 with or maybe 35 without MP2.

Heads-up -15%
3-handed -3%

I think MP2 subsidizes(is this the right word) the equity deficit.