The value of reads.... my proudest laydown (little brag post)

kurto · #1 10-24-2005, 02:39 AM

There was a post earlier this week where someone was questioning the value of reads. He thought they were overrated. I was thinking about that when I was struggling with my read here. I was stuck between 'my gut read' and the idea of never laying down a fullhouse...

$50 PP

Hero has ~120
Villain has ~90

Villain is supertight TAG. Doesn't play any weird hands. I have never seen him call a raise without a pocket pair or AK. If he reraises PF, its AA or KK.

UTG raises to $1.50. 1 caller. Hero calls with pocket 10s. Villain calls on the button.

FLOP ($6.75) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG bets $2. fold. Hero raise to $6. Villain reraises to $12. UTG folds. I smoothcall. I really don't think he has aces because he would have reraised pf. I put him firmly on a set of 4s.

TURN (~30) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check. Villain goes all in. I think and think and can only put him on one hand. I fold.

He shows his quads. I smile.

I can say, this is only the second time I've ever laid down a middle flopped set on an uncoordinated board in 3 years of playing.

I know this doesn't contribute a lot to the forum except to reinforce that reads can be very powerful. There is no other player at this particular table I would have folded this hand too except this guy.

#2 10-24-2005, 02:43 AM

I'm glad it worked out for you

Personally, I need a super super super super read to consider folding, not putting AK in his hand range. In fact, I plan to go through my whole life never considering a fold here, and I don't think it will cost me much EV

soah · #3 10-24-2005, 02:48 AM

I was playing heads up today and knew that my set was no good as soon as I got minraised on the flop. The board failed to pair and I mucked on the river. He showed his flush. It felt good.

kurto · #4 10-24-2005, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I need a super super super super read to consider folding, not putting AK in his hand range. In fact, I plan to go through my whole life never considering a fold here, and I don't think it will cost me much EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, in general. But I firmly believed this player would not have put in a 3rd bet on the flop with just TPTK. A lot of other players, sure... but not this guy. He was too tight to go broke with just a pair.

FreakDaddy · #5 10-24-2005, 03:04 AM

Way to keep the mouse running on the wheel in the head.

Good read and application.

gulebjorn · #6 10-24-2005, 03:07 AM

Weak-tight.

... I'm kidding, good one. I like the flop read and sticking with it. I would have talked myself out of it.

#7 10-24-2005, 03:46 AM

NH

I ALMOST layed my JJ on A - J - 6 flop today. alllmost. too bad i didnt.

AA

#8 10-24-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I would have talked myself out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did this when I got reraised preflop with JJ and put him on AA or KK. When it was a KJx flop, I said "O, God, he has Kings." I checked, he potted it, and I convinced myself he had AK and pushed all in. He instacalled and showed KK.

ansky451 · #9 10-24-2005, 06:21 AM

Nice fold. Explain one thing to me:

[ QUOTE ]
I put him firmly on a set of 4s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why not push...

#10 10-24-2005, 06:25 AM

Because he's exaggerating a bit - we (as humans) do this naturally in this situation. We think "hmm this guy probably has X", then we fold, he shows X and we say "Ha! I knew it!" In reality the OP thought "This guy probably has 44" then when the turn play reenforced this read, he decided that he "definitely has 44".