50-100 Top Ten worst folds of all time

[mike l.]

lol, youre quick! i edited my message because i felt it was rash and stupid what i initially said. sorry for that.

check what i wrote again and please count that as what i really wanted to say.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
i edited my message because i felt it was rash and stupid what i initially said. sorry for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guilty here too. I accused mike l. of smoking strange plants. Then, I realized the flop was paired.

Still, he probably was smoking strange plants. I should re-edit my post and put that back in.

[shemp]

If he typically has, 10, 7, or 0 outs, I'd estimate it as
approaching a 2 big bet mistake. Doesn't that qualify
as huge?

[mike l.]

maybe you are better at EV calculations then me. i dont see how it's anything other than close between a fold and a call. can you explain how you get 2 big bet mistake.

[shemp]

I eyeballed it. At the time of the fold you are looking
at cases of 3, 2, & 0 BB mistakes roughly. I'm gonna WAG
that as a BB.

Then there's all sorts of river possibilities, but overall I WAG they work in your favor a BB or so.

[shemp]

Maybe you underestimate the chances he's drawing dead. It
looks like the blind has an overpair or a set and that
the button has an overpair or set. You hold AQ and need
them both to hold overpairs -- and JJ and TT don't seem
very likely. And if it's an overpair in the big blind, you
almost need it be exactly QQ.

There are other possibilities, yeah, but you seem pretty
strident about how live he is.

[mike l.]

youre confusing me here man. first you say his fold is a 1 big bet error (that's a pretty big error!) and now you say dynasty underestimates the chances he's drawing dead. so which is it? a call or a fold?

[shemp]

Sorry. I think I've been consistent. I like Dynasty's
analysis but was quibbling. I think the chances that you
are drawing dead are big -- that's why it is a 1 BB error
immediately (weighing cases of 3, 2, and 0) -- see, I'm
weighing the zero heavily. I'm guessing (unfairly?) that
Dynasty would weigh it differently.

An (immediate) 1 BB mistake is huge. You should call. I am,
I confess, WAGging a bit.

I also think the pre-flop and flop play deserve some
discussion.

[PokerPrince]

What would you like to say about the preflop and flop play? Here I thought it was quite clearcut.

PokerPrince

[Franchise (TTT)]

Why's everyone so adamant about 12 outs, and not 15? Is it that foregone that his Q is no good to AA/KK/QQ or 99/88? Couldn't JJ/TT play the same way (or who knows, maybe even some shocking garbage like T9s), given it was 3 bet before the flop? It's a pretty big pot on the turn, and his opponents could be making a move with a flush draw, top pair, top two, who knows... While that's not a great cross-section of hands ahead vs hands behind, I still think giving the Q's some consideration is worthwhile.

That said, I'd agree that somewhere in the 9-12 outs range is a good estimate of his probabilistic outs, so it's an easy call. It just seems odd you've all dismissed the Q so quickly... am I the only one that thinks it could be remotely good? Would anyone call a bet or overcall if the Q hits?