Was Villain Right?

[sammy_g]

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There's no way you can give yourself 7 outs. I think its more in the 5-5.5 range. Even with very generous implied odds assumptions this is neutral at best.

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It is probably about 6. See my post above for the math.

The call is correct even if you assume you do not collect any bets on the river.

[sammy_g]

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Here's a silly way to look at it: Do you think that if this hand was played from after the flop on 1000 times would you have a profit?

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Yes, from the flop on against SB's 3 betting range.

Obviously if we know SB will 3 bet we fold preflop. Also we know if villain will 3 bet on the flop, we do not raise the flop. I think the flop raise is fine if we have some hope of making big aces fold on the turn or even river.

[Evan]

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

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You will not get 2 bets on average when you river a straight, you just won't.

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Don't tell me he just won't. Tell me the hands that are in his range, that he'll check on the river fearing a straight made by a 6 by a preflop raiser who raised the flop.

Or is he bet/folding aces here? I value bet everything I've played this way so far and I'm paying off a raise. What hands are you playing differently?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]I'm not the villain, neither are you. People do irrational thigns pretty often, one of those things is value betting poorly due to an irrational fear of hands that beat them, one of those hands is a one card straight.

[krishanleong]

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I'm not the villain, neither are you. People do irrational thigns pretty often, one of those things is value betting poorly due to an irrational fear of hands that beat them, one of those hands is a one card straight.

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I agree with this.

The previous action (preflop 3-bet, flop bet-3-bet) makes me think this particular villian won't check the 4 straight river.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

I just call the flop. And yes, we would easily show a profit. Playing past the flop is clearly +EV here.

[sammy_g]

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Something you want to consider is the amount of times your gutshot is your only good card. Often your A is tainted pretty badly, so you're raising the flop hoping to get one of something like 6-7 turn cards. Not worth it when you consider the chances of being 3bet, as you were.

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Given the flop action, this guy has an overpair or set 90% of the time. None of these hands picks up a club draw on the turn.

The ace is not tainted badly. 2/3rds of the time we hit an ace it is good. (See my math in other parts of the thread.)

The flop raise is debatable, but I like it in a pot this size if villain is capable of laying down big unimproved aces on later streets. Even if you intend to take a free card I still like the flop raise with between 6-7 outs, which is what we have on average on the flop against villain's range. Villain will have AK and AQ type hands often here (before we see the flop 3 bet), and you might even be ahead of KQ. This pot is too big not to fight for.

[NLSoldier]

I only saw the firt couple replies, but Evan is definately a nit for folding this preflop.

The flop raise was really your only mistake. The hand pretty much plays itself from there.

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folding the flop would suck. You are getting 8:1 and have at least 4 outs. With implied odds (even if you have 4 outs you'd only need to make up 1.5 BB on average) it's an easy call.

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You're right, implied odds make the flop call +EV. The turn is still a clear fold though.

[QTip]

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I only saw the firt couple replies, but Evan is definately a nit for folding this preflop.

The flop raise was really your only mistake. The hand pretty much plays itself from there.

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These are my thoughts exactly.

[Subfallen]

You need to accept that a sane opponent's 3-bets means *something*, even if it is only that he can beat A6o. Yes, you should peel the flop, but what the hell are you raising for? The pot is big enough and the flop sparse enough that your opponent will almost certainly make it to the river with even just unimproved overcards, and you're drawing to 7 or so outs.