Ducks in the blind

[Absolution]

Standard. What's the problem?

[droolie]

I'm glad so many of you found this hand so uninteresting. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I posted it because I really liked the way it went down and was hoping it would spark a little interest from our newer forum members.

Many of the tighter players might fold this pf. This is something I hope we all realize is a mistake. However what do you do if:
A: MP2 calls and CO raises?
B: MP2 folds and CO calls?
C: MP2 folds and CO raises?


On the flop calling is clearly correct. I doubt anybody would be tempted to fold here. What do you do if:

D: BB raised instead of folded?


On the turn raising seems obvious but does anybody call the raise to try to keep UTG+1 around?

What's your move on the river if MP2 caps the turn?

[Student Caine]

Let's see if I can redeem myself mathematically.

A: MP2 calls and CO raises
So we will have 2 scenarios here...in both of them I am going to assume that BB now folds rather than calls:

1) Noone Caps the Betting.
So here we will wind up paying 2.5 SB while the others will contribute a total of 10 SB (3 from UTG+1, 3 from MP2, 3 from CO, 1 from BB). So here we are getting 4:1.

2) Someone Caps the Betting
So here we will wind up paying 3.5 SB while the others contribute 13 SB (4 from UTG+1, 4 from MP2, 4 from CO, 1 from BB). So we are getting ~3.7:1.

So we need to get 7:1 implied odds for our set. This means that in Scenario 1 we would need to win 17.5 SB (8.75 BB) and in Scenario 2 we would need to win 24.5 SB (12.25 BB). The pot already contains 10 SB (5 BB) and 13 SB (6.5 BB) resepectively. So in one case we need to gain 4 BB and in the other we need to gain 6 BB. Given the 3 other players in the pot and the fact that we should see some decent action on the flop (at least) I think that we can easily squeeze out the 4 BB and maybe get our 6 BB (obviously we are looking at the money that the other players will be putting in as we cannot count money that we put in and then win back as profit in this instance). I think that I call here and hope it doesn't cap (but I certainly call if it does). Have I overestimated our chances to get 7:1 implied odds with this many people in the pot?

B: MP2 folds and CO calls
So here I will assume that BB, facing only 1 additional bet will call. This means that we are putting in 1.5 (not .75! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) SB and the others are contributing 6 SB ( 2 from UTG+1, 2 from CO, 2 from BB). So we are getting 4:1 here as well. This time we need to get to 14 SB (7 BB) to make our implied odds work for our set. The pot already contains 3 BB so with 3 other players in the pot we would need to once again squeeze out 4 BB, which is the same BB we needed to hit in the example above. The only difference here is that he pot is not very big. This one is a tough decision, but I think that based on the size of the pot and the fact that we may or may not see multiway action on the flop I let this one go. Is this being too weak-tight in a marginal situation?

C: MP2 folds and CO raises
So here we have A, but with fewer callers. If we assume that BB will now fold and the betting is not capped, then we will be putting in 2.5 SB and the others will contribute 7 SB (3 from UTG+1, 2 from CO, 1 from BB). So we are getting 2.8:1 here. I think that this is an easy fold, especially since our odds only get worse if the betting is capped (however, if we do choose to call the 3-bet here, then we have to call the cap).

D: BB Raised Instead of Folded (on the Flop)
If BB raises and everyone calls here then I think we have an easy call as we are getting 15:1 odds to call.

If BB raises and someone 3-bets then I think we are in a rough spot as we are now sandwiched between the raiser and BB so we may get the dubious honor of calling a cap if we go ahead and call the 3-bet. If we are calling the 3-bet cold then we are getting roughly 8.75:1 at that time (assuming UTG+1 is the 3-better and MP2 calls, which we will know when the action gets to us). If we want to take into account the fact that BB will cap then we will be paying 3 more SB and the pot will have 21 SB...so we are just about 7:1.

This one is a bit tricker...I think we have to assume that BB will cap this and our pot odds are starting to get thin here. I think that gien the fact that BB may or may not cap I still call here.