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  #11  
Old 10-02-2005, 03:16 PM
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Default Re: FPP re-buy super to $500,000 guaranteed after break

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I'd take a free card so I don't get Check-Raised out of the hand.. then on 4th street if he checks again, you can bet whether you make your hand or not.. or if he bets smallish, maybe your pot-odds + implied odds will be good enough

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ahh yes, this is true.

Look at the stacks, any continuation bet commits yo to the pot, you're not getting CR out of this pot

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  #12  
Old 10-02-2005, 04:34 PM
JustPlayingSmart JustPlayingSmart is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 159
Default Re: FPP re-buy super to $500,000 guaranteed after break

I would bet 900 and call a push. The T1400 in the pot currently represents 28% of your stack (after the preflop raise). I think you get a fold too often here to check. If the small blind just called, I usually would assume I can't get him to fold, so I would check behind on the turn and get the money in on the river if I hit. If a Q or J came on any street and he moved in on the river, I would have a decision, leaning towards fold. If he checked both the turn and river I might try to bluff him out on the river, depending on if I thought he had a K or a smaller part of the board.
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  #13  
Old 10-02-2005, 05:03 PM
McMelchior McMelchior is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: New York, New York
Posts: 66
Default Re: FPP re-buy super to $500,000 guaranteed after break

The FPP re-buys are Turbo. No real read on SB apart from last hand.

I c-bet t800 into the t1,500 pot. SB CR all-in for and additional t1,320. There's t4,320 in the pot, so I'm getting 3.3:1 on my OESD, plenty to call.

I miss my str8 and he takes it down with KJo.

Cards happen, but ... knowing there's a good chance I end up with half of my chips in the pot on a draw most likely to 8 outs (effectively costing me t2,120 for a shot at winning t3,620 or 1.7:1), would it have been prudent NOT to c-bet? Seeing the turn for free, folding to his (likely) bet, and moving on with t4,900, still above average and an M of 9?

I'm trying to figure out the break even point for how often villain needs to fold to make the continuation-bet profitable for me (I'm using approximate values, and I assume I have to hit my str8 to win if I'm CRd):

He folds X% of the time, and I end up with a total of t6,300
He calls (100-X)% of the time: My EV here (twodimes.net) is .32, so I end up with approximately t4,600 on the average.

X*6,300 – (1-X)*4,600 = 0 for break even, or X = 42.

So he has to fold 42% of the time to make the c-bet profitable. That's a LOT! (edit: or is it?)

I am ready to conclude that the best strategy here is to check after on the flop, and fold the turn if I dont hit (and if I'm bet into).

Oppinions?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)
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  #14  
Old 10-02-2005, 05:20 PM
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Default Re: FPP re-buy super to $500,000 guaranteed after break

[ QUOTE ]
The FPP re-buys are Turbo. No real read on SB apart from last hand.

I c-bet t800 into the t1,500 pot. SB CR all-in for and additional t1,320. There's t4,320 in the pot, so I'm getting 3.3:1 on my OESD, plenty to call.

I miss my str8 and he takes it down with KJo.

Cards happen, but ... knowing there's a good chance I end up with half of my chips in the pot on a draw most likely to 8 outs (effectively costing me t2,120 for a shot at winning t3,620 or 1.7:1), would it have been prudent NOT to c-bet? Seeing the turn for free, folding to his (likely) bet, and moving on with t4,900, still above average and an M of 9?

I'm trying to figure out the break even point for how often villain needs to fold to make the continuation-bet profitable for me (I'm using approximate values, and I assume I have to hit my str8 to win if I'm CRd):

He folds X% of the time, and I end up with a total of t6,300
He calls (100-X)% of the time: My EV here (twodimes.net) is .32, so I end up with approximately t4,600 on the average.

X*6,300 – (1-X)*4,600 = 0 for break even, or X = 42.

So he has to fold 42% of the time to make the c-bet profitable. That's a LOT!

I am ready to conclude that the best strategy here is to check after on the flop, and fold the turn if I dont hit (and if I'm bet into).

Oppinions?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

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After thinking about everything (before I even read this particular post, honest to goodness), I think that a check behind would be good there. If a 9 comes, he will lead into you and you take out his stack, and if an ace comes, he is likely to make a bet too and kick himself for slowplaying his hand when he gets raised all in/you call his all in. Plus, there is the odd chance that he doesn't go all in on the turn if you check behind, and gives you a good price to see one more card for your straight.

Good post, I like hands that get me thinking, alot of hands seem to have fairly easy decisions, this one has a close one. My first instinct here is to make a continuation bet which would pot commit me, and that isn't the right choice.

I learned something. Good times.
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