AA against a lagtag, live 6/12

[lighterjobs]

why call the turn and raise river?

if raising one, why not both?

[PITTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't even raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

[/ QUOTE ]

if there were 2 hearts i would raise the flop, rainbow paired board is so [censored] money here. i like the turn smoothcall and river raise though, nh.

rj

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't even raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not until somebody convinces me otherwise.

Edit: And why is he called a lagtag? He seemed a bit weak-tight to me given the earlier hand. Do you mean he was aggressive preflop? If so this might make me want to raise sooner than the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I also gave away that I had a monster in that AQ hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not fold? He's obviously got K6 or KK here.

[toss]

[ QUOTE ]
why call the turn and raise river?

if raising one, why not both?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero believes villain will often fold the turn whilst on the river make a crying call. Theres no evidence that villain will donkbet both the turn and river.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't even raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not until somebody convinces me otherwise.

Edit: And why is he called a lagtag? He seemed a bit weak-tight to me given the earlier hand. Do you mean he was aggressive preflop? If so this might make me want to raise sooner than the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I also gave away that I had a monster in that AQ hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not fold? He's obviously got K6 or KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the pot was probably large enough for him to draw to his 4 outer.

What are you talking about K6 or KK? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I raise the turn. That donk bet is most likely a flush draw that he just picked up. If he has the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it doesnt much matter, but as it could easily be something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I think you have to raise the turn.

[brazilio]

If you post ridiculous advice with no backing and no reasoning behind it other than your action, I have to assume that you're an idiot. Now seriously, either explain why you wouldn't raise the flop and what your turn and river actions will be or stop posting in this thread.

He folded in that AQ hand because he thought he was almost 100% drawing dead, not because he had odds to call for his 4-outer.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
If you post ridiculous advice with no backing and no reasoning behind it other than your action, I have to assume that you're an idiot. Now seriously, either explain why you wouldn't raise the flop and what your turn and river actions will be or stop posting in this thread.

He folded in that AQ hand because he thought he was almost 100% drawing dead, not because he had odds to call for his 4-outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you haven't even bothered to think about why I chose that action and call me an idiot because of it, bah.

Now the reasoning, pretty much the same reason you didn't raise the turn.

In your description he sounded like a bit weak tigtish TAG, his range is very likely to be stuff you're way ahead of, but alot of it will fold somewhere if you raise. I put him on:

KQs, AKo, QQ, JJ, TT, 99

20 combos that probably won't fold if you raise the flop, although you might gain 1SB more by waiting with KQs, and might lose 1SB by waiting with AK if he'll go to war on the flop, so that evens out. Notice all of these have 2 outs against you.

If he has one of the pocket pairs he's probably folding either the flop or turn, so you lose up to 2BB if he has QQ and would check call on the turn and river but would fold to the flop raise.

Later on in the thread you put him on KTs, so that might make me want to raise the flop since there are more hands with a king in them, although none but AK will probably go to war, so we might gain an SB by waiting anyway if they'll bet all the way and call a river raise. You should've said he was loose in his preflop raising standards in the OP.

And if thinks he's drawing dead in a >10.5BB pot with 4 outs against your straight he is weak tight unless somehow your action indicated a set or straight.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't even raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll often wait until a big bet street to raise in this situation, depending on player profile. Against standard loosies, I'll usually call the flop and raise the turn. Against TAGs, I'll often wait all the way until the river, knowing that they might shut down if I raise the turn but will value bet the river. Against a player who is not that willing to put in tough value bets on later streets, I do think raising the flop is the best way because that puts your opponent in a position of "how could I ever have gotten away from this hand."

I just think it's important to realize that these sorts of hands often only allow you one opportunity to raise, and it's important to pick it wisely. People should be open-minded, basically willing to play these types of hands with whatever sequences of calls and raises are most likely to maximize the number of bets that go in when you are ahead, while not giving thoughtful opponents easy opportunities to fold.

Taking a "not raising the flop is ridiculous" approach in general is misguided.

Against this opponent I think raising the flop is correct, fwiw, but I think it's not obvious at all. My main reasoning for it is that I'm afraid this opponent will fold to a turn raise and might not bet into me on the river. Raising the flop seems the way that will most likely get 3 BB in total.

This hand was perfectly played, in my opinion.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the turn. That donk bet is most likely a flush draw that he just picked up. If he has the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it doesnt much matter, but as it could easily be something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I think you have to raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone advocating a turn raise should really think about what they are trying to accomplish with that. Tight-weak and thinking players often donk-bet the turn with mediocre-weak hands. Villain has already shown the ability to fold decent hands on the turn. He's also shown some weakness on the river, which might help us to cut our losses against a hand like trips.

Raising the turn strikes me as quite bad here. We give an opponent with a better hand a totally easy opportunity to extract a bunch from us (we want to get to showdown here). We also give a tight/thinking opponent with an inferior hand a very easy opportunity to get away from it.

We get the same number of bets in this way. The only way we lose is against a draw here, but I don't buy the idea that our opponent is likely to have a draw that doesn't also contain a K any significant portion of the time here. If he has that type of hand he'll be crying-calling the river anyway, so there's no point to juice the turn.