Does he really have that? PP 30

DpR · #1 09-17-2005, 03:51 AM

Villian 27/12/1.7

I am in the midst of a big down swing and my image is as such. Villian seems pretty typical of opponenets with his stats - I haven't seen him get out of line at all this session.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 6 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Decide to slow play it this time. Considering betting out the turn, but will check raise any big card.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Ok, that is not great. I think he has to be worried I have a 9 yet he three bets anyway. What hand can that be? I am hoping AK clubs but three betting that here doesnt make a ton of sense. Possibilities seem to be AA, 88 and AK clubs in that order.

River: (11.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hmm, that is an interesting card. How many bets do you want to put in on the river here?

vmacosta · #2 09-17-2005, 04:04 AM

I'm def c/r and probably capping. If he's got AA, so be it.

mc1023 · #3 09-17-2005, 06:44 AM

I would lead the river and call a raise.

there's a chance villian might've 3betted the turn and planning to check behind the river and you've clearly defined your hand that if he still aggro on the river you are most likely behind.

steveyz · #4 09-17-2005, 01:28 PM

Bet and 3-bet the river.

DeeJ · #5 09-17-2005, 03:14 PM

i think it may be better to check-raise and call a 3-bet rather than bet/3bet and get capped by AA.

He's more likely to have AQ/AK/88 than AA. He will have AA sometimes tho, he's not slowed down at all.

ggbman · #6 09-17-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think it may be better to check-raise and call a 3-bet rather than bet/3bet and get capped by AA.

He's more likely to have AQ/AK/88 than AA. He will have AA sometimes tho, he's not slowed down at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check raising/calling a 3 bet seems like vastly superior line to bet/3betting. Other than 88, what is he going to 4 bets on the river with?

DpR · #7 09-17-2005, 05:08 PM

This hand annoyed me becasue I played my hand as it was without following my read of what he had. I didn't really think that AK clubs was 3-betting this turn, and if he didnt have Ax clubs, I am finished.

Despite that I bet three bet the river. It was capped and I lost to AA. I felt pretty stupid for burning chips becasue I had a boat even though I think I am beat here a lot.

And of course the fact that I Was getting creamed all day didbt help....

elindauer · #8 09-17-2005, 05:22 PM

Hi DpR,

After the turn, I'd say his play is totally consistent with AA and 88. I'd substantially discount a hand like AKc, but maybe, AK even more so, and possibly even JTc. I don't think 12% pfr is raising A9, but A9s might be in there.

Of these, you now beat 88 and the discouted AK combinations. You lose to AA, A9s, and a discounted JTs. I'm not excited about putting in a number of bets. Betting and calling a raise or check-raising and making a crying call on a 3-bet are my choices.

I think I like betting and calling a raise, as I really want to get exactly 2 bets in, and I think he'll raise with a hand as weak as AKc. Additionally, he somtimes makes a bad call with AKo when I play it this way.

Check-raising still gets only 2 out of AKc, probably gets nothing out of AK, while losing 3 bets to AA, A9, and JTs. I might get 3 bets out of 88 sometimes, but I don't think it happens often enough to justify losing an extra bet to the other hands.

So, I guess I nominate betting and calling a raise, expecting to win when raised about half the time.

-Eric

DpR · #9 09-17-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi DpR,

After the turn, I'd say his play is totally consistent with AA and 88. I'd substantially discount a hand like AKc, but maybe, AK even more so, and possibly even JTc. I don't think 12% pfr is raising A9, but A9s might be in there.

Of these, you now beat 88 and the discouted AK combinations. You lose to AA, A9s, and a discounted JTs. I'm not excited about putting in a number of bets. Betting and calling a raise or check-raising and making a crying call on a 3-bet are my choices.

I think I like betting and calling a raise, as I really want to get exactly 2 bets in, and I think he'll raise with a hand as weak as AKc. Additionally, he somtimes makes a bad call with AKo when I play it this way.

Check-raising still gets only 2 out of AKc, probably gets nothing out of AK, while losing 3 bets to AA, A9, and JTs. I might get 3 bets out of 88 sometimes, but I don't think it happens often enough to justify losing an extra bet to the other hands.

So, I guess I nominate betting and calling a raise, expecting to win when raised about half the time.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I agree with your analysis here and think I played the hand rather poorly. I knew I was beat and spewed anyway.