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#31
08-30-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
Here is a classic thread about this very topic...
POLL: 99 overpair - flop decision Read what StellarWind and Chris Daddy Cool had to say and you will become a better player. 
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#32
08-30-2005, 04:08 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
Grunching . . .
You didn't supply reads on the first two limpers, but if I were feeling froggy (and I do many a time), I might just raise to buy the button and/or fold the blinds. The former happened anyway, but the gamboooling SB raised for you. On the flop, he bet out, continuing his aggression. Two overcards seem to be what he has. Your call was textbook, considering your equity edge, if you have one at all, is dinky, and a lot of turn cards crush you. The turn pairs the 4, SB leads again and BB donkraises him. He's representing a 4 bigger than hell. Your odds are 11.5-2. I might just peel here if I were closing the action, but with the prospect of more raises to come, fold. Plus, the 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is way dirty (MP2 looks to be on a flush draw) and the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] slightly less so, since someone holding 6/5 for a straight is unlikely, but possible. Muck it. Edit: DUH! ˇYo soy muy estupido! The two remaining eights boat you up, but those are still your only likely clean outs. Fold.
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#33
08-30-2005, 04:26 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
Here is a classic thread about this very topic... POLL: 99 overpair - flop decision Read what StellarWind and Chris Daddy Cool had to say and you will become a better player. [/ QUOTE ] ouch! i think my head hurts from that thread trying to cram/remember all that thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] that's a lot to digest and see how/when to apply and if/how it applies here...right now i have to try and go pick my brain up off the floor after it ran out my ears. PS Edit: i don't like that i can't toggle archived posts as favorites [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]
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#35
08-30-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
Here is a classic thread about this very topic... POLL: 99 overpair - flop decision Read what StellarWind and Chris Daddy Cool had to say and you will become a better player. [/ QUOTE ] I've never actually seen that post before, and it's convinced me that we should just raise the flop here. But doesn't that logic invalidate virtually every case of waiting until the turn to raise?
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#36
08-30-2005, 04:36 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
I would raise this preflop. 88 is a good hand and raising here will force CO and BUTTON out. [/ QUOTE ] The table's been playing loose enough that a preflop raise isn't going to be for isolating the EP limpers. If you raise preflop (and I'm not saying it's a bad idea; my cutoff is usually 99 here) then it needs to be for value.
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#37
08-30-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
I don't think so b/c situations where you wait for the turn to raise are different. I am thinking of two situations 1)where you want to protect your hand 2) waiting for the turn for your pot equity to improve. I think in both cases you need to be able to face a majority of the field with two bets cold on the turn. Your position relative to the initial bettor does not allow that here. In addition in case 2, you need to have an idea of how the turn card affects your equity. Absent spiking an 8 here in this huge multiway pot you, there are not many cards you are happy to see. I think case 2 applies to situations where you have a hand like jj or 1010 and you are waiting for the turn to punish people sticking around with over cards.
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#38
08-30-2005, 04:41 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here is a classic thread about this very topic... POLL: 99 overpair - flop decision Read what StellarWind and Chris Daddy Cool had to say and you will become a better player. [/ QUOTE ] I've never actually seen that post before, and it's convinced me that we should just raise the flop here. But doesn't that logic invalidate virtually every case of waiting until the turn to raise? [/ QUOTE ] I'd love to see a discussion of what conditions the people advocating a flop raise feel are necessary for "waiting until the turn", because with 88 it seems like you'd have an even bigger equity edge change depending on the turn card then you would with the TT from the SSH hand. It would also be nice to hear if people disagree with raising the turn in the TT SSH hand, or if they agree but see some differences in this hand versus that one that swings this to a flop raise. Someone earlier already made the point that by playing the flop passively, you run into more of these difficult decisions on the turn.
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#39
08-30-2005, 05:02 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
eh... There are so many opinions i dont think we will ever get to the real solution =(. I've read and re-read this and people have good points on what they would or wouldnt do in this situation. I can't decide so i'll just say what i would have done. i think raiseing the flop (while i have the best of it) is the correct. Now on the turn when i bet again and get raised i'd know i'm in trouble.
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#40
08-30-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: I wait until the turn, but now I\'m confused
Typically waiting for the turn to raise for value is not a very good idea. It simply backfires too often and you leave too much money on the table when you have the best of it.
When it usually works best is when the pot is quite large and waiting until the turn increases your chances of being able to protect your hand and win a very big pot. Think in terms of odds you will be able to present the field with if you wait. So if a flop raise will offer the field 20:2 but waiting until the turn will offer them 12:2 it's worth tha gamble that the flop raiser will be checked to and then bet again with a ahand you beat. Usually you should have a good hand and good relative position to the flop bettor. In this hand we have a big pot (not that big though) but terrible relative position. When we just call the flop all kinds of things can screw us up. This hand is a classic example of what can happen that might lead us to fold the best hand in a big pot (a terrible blunder BTW). Keep in mind that BB's bet might not be a bluff if he puts SB on overcards and he has something other than the trips he's representing. He might think his 66, 55, A2 or A7 is good here and you fold the best hand fearing your behind at least one of them. Other things that frequently happen is that even if your plan works and SB bets and you trap the field you then get 3-bet on an expensive street by a hand that has you drawing to 2-outs. I'd rather have a better sense of this on the flop than the turn. As Aaron said if you never waited for the turn it wouldn't be much of a leak as the circumstances it's correct for are quite rare. Unless you are confident you should wait for the turn just raise the flop for value if you think you have an equity edge.
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