Get to showdown more? Prove it.

[paco]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: raising the flop does nothing. I'd just call down. The way you played it I don't like the river bet.

Hand 2: totally read dependent, but it could easily be a call. I would usually bet the turn.

Hand 3: looks good.

Hand 4: always bet the turn.

Hand 5: again very read based. Folding is a good default.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like, but on hand 3, with 3 people taking the flop there is a pair out there more often than the odds you are being offered to call down. NOt the place to call down with A-hign IMO

[7ontheline]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For example:

.32 x .54 = .1728. 17.28% of the time when you play a hand you get to showdown and win.

How about 36% SD% but only 50% W$SD (which is close to my stats, so this is where I'm getting it from)

.36 x .50 = .18 When I play a hand I take it to showdown and win 18% of the time or so. 0.7% adds up over tens of thousands of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

this math is bogus. if you are only dealt winning hands 20% of the time, it is much better to have a 20% SD% and a 100% W$SD, than vice versa. according to your equations, those two stat lines come out the same.

in your example, assuming your playing styles are the same, you're adding in 0.7% of hands where you win a pot, but 3.3% where you lose a pot. you should still come out ahead, but not by nearly as much as you suggest.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I had thought about that, but neglected to mention it. You are winning more pots overall but losing bets on other hands. I think this is really a crude tool in any case - there are so many variables that go into this. I was mentioning it because I had seen it previously described by people smarter than me. In any case, I still think that there is something to this but it's hard to truly make quantitative judgments.

[SomethingClever]

About the lack of turn betting.

I bet the turn with unimproved overcards heads up something like 95% of the time.

I'm thinking I need to do it a little less, so I was experimenting here. Probably the wrong spots.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
1)
If your default play in hands like the first one is to call if someone bets into you, u got a problem that got nothing to do with WTSD. If it is a rock, u raise and take a free card, if it isnt u raise and bet turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, your default play is to raise here no matter what?


[ QUOTE ]

2)
All the hands u give example of are without any reads on your opponents. Do u have reads but dont give us them? U will never survive long at a higher limit without good reads that u act on. (Everyone got reads theses days with playerview and such, but how to act on them is a different thing)

[/ QUOTE ]

I have marginal reads, but I don't present them unless they helped color my decision. In these situations, I didn't have enough of a read to help me out.

Also, I'm not too worried about the higher limits yet. I just want to beat 3/6 and 5/10, which is proving to be challenge enough for now.

[EvanJC]

just curious, but what was your won$WSF during both your curren bad run and from your stats from 1/2 and 2/4? my went to SD hovers around 35/36 and my W$SD is usually around 52%.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
just curious, but what was your won$WSF during both your curren bad run and from your stats from 1/2 and 2/4? my went to SD hovers around 35/36 and my W$SD is usually around 52%.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just from memory, so it may be off a bit.

This month, I'm like -0.8 bb/100, and my WWSF is huge, like 44.

And I seem to recall it was always lower... like 35ish... when I was doing well at the lower limits.

Counterintuitive, eh?

I'll look up the real numbers at lunch.

[kiddo]

Yes, a drawish flop and someone bets into you and u are sitting with a good draw. Raise him. Sometimes bet turn, sometimes take free card. If he 3bets flop, think about capping and then check turn behind. I would think capping flop with a draw is a strong move at 3/6 cause not to many does it so they will put u on a good hand?

I think having read on your opponents and acting on this is the single most important thing that differ the decent from the good. Not saying u got a problem with this, but I know there are lot who does. If anyone got a problem with this, it is a much bigger problem then not raising the blinds enough etc.

I won 3BB/100 at 5/10 4tabling without defending my blinds enough (200K) and without seeing more then VPIP 22%. I guess a lost a little, but still, I defended played ok hands, its only the marginal EV+ hands I didnt come in with.