Selling NFL picks on eBay

#1 08-12-2005, 07:06 PM

This is my first post at the 2+2 forum. I work with a frequent poster to this site who recommended the forum as a great melding of both game afficiandos and mathematical minds, so I wanted to see what all of you think about the viability of an idea I have.

I have been an NFL gambler for roughly 10 years now, since developing a system in college. It is a very successful system -- in winning margin but more so because of the volume of bets placed. On average the system returns 54% of the very large handle laid out weekly.

I have two questions for the board -- 1) Have you heard of any person not in the business of "selling picks" Las Vegas style who sold their picks on eBay or through a website? and 2) Would auctioning picks on eBay be considered illegal? The guy I work with told me this has been done before, but a glance at eBay indicates the most of the gambling system purveyors are from the UK.

Any help and advice would be appreciated. Thanks!

MasterShakes · #2 08-12-2005, 07:24 PM

1) Until I read and evaluate the system myself, I can't believe anything that you say about it.

2) If it picks 54% winners against widely available lines in the NFL, it would have to do significantly better with just a little bit of line shopping.

3) Why not just keep the system to yourself, make flat bets at 2% of your bankroll, increase your bankroll, increase your bets and become a millionaire many times over?

4) Yes, lots of people sell picks through their websites. They're called scam artists.

5) I would think that selling the system itself would be more likely to be legal than selling the picks that the system creates, but I don't think it's likely that selling either of these would be considered illegal since hundreds of scamdicappers do it every day.

That said, I would be happy to evaluate your system for you if you wanted to do it in private. I could give you an honest opinion as to whether it would continue to work, and you can decide what you want to do with it from there.

Edited to add: If it really has been successful, and you knew anything about money management and line shopping at all, there isn't a chance on earth that you would need to sell this thing. I think it's more likely that it doesn't really work.

#3 08-12-2005, 07:39 PM

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2) If it picks 54% winners against widely available lines in the NFL, it would have to do significantly better with just a little bit of line shopping.

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Not 54% winners, 54% of the money wagered, which includes within it vig for straight bets -- I bet money lines as well. Basically it wins 3.5% above 52.38%, not that impressive until you consider that the volume of wagers the system makes is very high

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3) Why not just keep the system to yourself

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That's what I've been doing for myself and my friends to date. I thought I might try to initiate a tiny backup career in case my current one doesn't work out. I have a degree in economics from UCLA and am heading back to school for my Masters next Fall, I'm not a desperado out to make a quick buck.

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4) Yes, lots of people sell picks through their websites. They're called scam artists.

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Yes, I agree. I'm more curious about the eBay angle - charge very little for a full season of picks but gain a small base of referral I could use in the future. The legality of it is also a major issue, obviously.

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That said, I would be happy to evaluate your system for you if you wanted to do it in private. I could give you an honest opinion as to whether it would continue to work,

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Thanks for the offer. It's a complex system in an even harder to read spreadsheet. I'm fairly certain it will continue to work at least moderately well into the future as none of the trends are team-based.

Thanks for the feedback.

#4 08-12-2005, 07:43 PM

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If it really has been successful, and you knew anything about money management and line shopping at all, there isn't a chance on earth that you would need to sell this thing.

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Did you consider that maybe I don't have the capital to make anything substantial from it? I understand the skepticism however. The only reason I've even thought about this is my friend who posts here says that people (scam artists, whoever) have sold their picks on eBay. Otherwise, I wouldn't care.

YoureToast · #5 08-12-2005, 07:49 PM

I believe you; I have a bankroll; and I will give you a percentage of what I win this year if I use your system. PM me.

#6 08-12-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you; I have a bankroll; and I will give you a percentage of what I win this year if I use your system. PM me.

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Lol This reminds me of one thing I didn't mention - I documented many of my picks (some pointspreads and totals) on the Bigguy.com website (recreational gambling site, figured some of you may have heard of it). Aside from actual documentation, any system is unsellable I agree.

MasterShakes · #7 08-12-2005, 08:07 PM

Go ahead and sell your system on eBay. Without coming here for practical advice about whether the system actually works and what principles were involved in developing it, you would have been better off emailing eBay and asking them if you're allowed to sell it there.

#8 08-12-2005, 08:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Go ahead and sell your system on eBay. Without coming here for practical advice about whether the system actually works and what principles were involved in developing it, you would have been better off emailing eBay and asking them if you're allowed to sell it there.

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I came on to ask if any of you have heard of people attempting to sell their picks on eBay. That was all.

I'm willing to discuss strategy/trends and anything else anytime. I'll start a new thread and post a bunch of trends for debate -- sound ok?

lastsamurai · #9 08-13-2005, 06:45 AM

sygame. Can i ask you a personal question? How old are you?

What you should do is go to vegas and enter one of those handicapping contests. Atleast you will get some recognition.

LargeCents · #10 08-14-2005, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Go ahead and sell your system on eBay. Without coming here for practical advice about whether the system actually works and what principles were involved in developing it, you would have been better off emailing eBay and asking them if you're allowed to sell it there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I came on to ask if any of you have heard of people attempting to sell their picks on eBay. That was all.

I'm willing to discuss strategy/trends and anything else anytime. I'll start a new thread and post a bunch of trends for debate -- sound ok?

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People sell all kinds of bs on eBay every day. I can't even shop there anymore. It's bogus. But, there must be all kinds of idiots with stupid money, so I would strongly recommend you to go ahead with it, as long as it is "legal" or whatever. Tell us how it turns out. GL!