seemingly clear cut... or is it.

[PassiveCaller]

3-6 short handed, online.

CO & Button limp, SB folds. I have 57o on the BB. I obviously check. (Edit: I did not have the 5 of clubs)

Reads lets see. Not much, except that both the CO and Button like to bet and are pretty aggressive with anything, not much slow playing going on and there's been a decent amount of betting. My image is of one that I can fold but is aggressive as well.

Flop: TA5, only thing important is that there's one club, the Ace. the rest I don't remember nor is it that important (rainbow)

I check, other guy checks quickly, 3rd guy pauses for awhile and then decides to check which wasn't typical for Villian.
Sure he could have gotten up whatever, but that didn't seem to be the case.

Turn: Tc

I bet, other guy folds, Pausing Button guy decides to raise, I deliberate and call.

River: A

I check, He bets, Hero... ?

Before I hear you have 7 kicker, let's think about hand ranges and what you think villian has.

[jba]

I would fold to the turn check/raise

and I would also fold the river.

villain is calling with any K, maybe a Q, maybe even a J

we need to think about what villain is putting us on and I think he's going to rule out A or T pretty quickly. if we c/r the river we look very suspicious, I think.

[PassiveCaller]

Why can't I have an Ace or a T? I see no reason.

I thought about folding to the turn check raise, but let's focus more on villians holdings here and what he would raise the turn with.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't I have an Ace or a T? I see no reason.

I thought about folding to the turn check raise, but let's focus more on villians holdings here and what he would raise the turn with.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe "rule out pretty quickly" was too strong, but do you play an A or T this way on the flop? I think villain may know that you are aggressive and consider it unlikely

I know you want to put him on a busted flush draw which I'll admit is possible. It's just that the bluff river raise isn't all that likely to work in normal circumstances, because people just hate folding the river when they've already put money in.

I can't see this guy bet/folding the river enough to justify the move.

if you've actually seen this guy bet/fold the river I think it's marginal, if not I think it's EV-.

[nubs]

I think we can immediately rule out an Ace or ten for the villain based on your description. Then what could the villain be raising on the turn? I think pocket pairs 66-99 are doubtful as you would expect a hand like that eager to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible.

The villain has no reason to believe we dont have an A or T since we could have easily missed a check raise and be fearing giving a club draw a free card.

So what the can we put the villain on? Most of the time I think they will have two clubs, making turn call fairly clear cut.

Now the river brings one of the ugliest cards possible. But is it? Once we check the river is K or Q high betting or checking behind in hopes their hand is good? Most likely the latter. So when the villain pauses and bets it is from a hand that cant seemingly win in a showdown. Even then we dont like our hand very much. What are we beating? exactly 2-6 high. Does he bet these hands often enough to make calling probable? I dont think so.

[PassiveCaller]

I think more important here is how often does villian check any Ten or Ace in last position.

While I'd mostly bet with a T or A, some weaker varieties of the T I may check, and sometimes the lowest aces (albeit both situations are not that often but I can think of a few situations I'd let them bet). The aces are skewed since the larger variety I'll mostly raise with pre-flop.

If Villian doesn't think I have an Ace or T then that's all the more reason for him to raise here with clubs isn't it though?

[PassiveCaller]

Interesting, I think K,Q,J high all take this opportunity to check more then I gave original credit to.

So that leaves us with 9 high, 8 high, or 6,5,4,3,2 (22) or one of the full houses oddly played.

Now what do you think about the river?

[nubs]

Thats an interesting point. Just looking t the number of combinations it looks like a call may be correct. But i think we may not be weighting the probabilities correctly. We can't rule out an A or T completely. We also don't know for sure weather they will check behind that jack or queen or king. I do however think the worse the kicker is the more likely they are going to try and pick up the spot with a bluff. But if i was in the situation i would be thinking, 7-high? MUCK. But that isnt the correct thought process. But the more i think about it, you may be good often enough here against this opponent to make calling profitable.

[PassiveCaller]

Well I'll share how I weighed it and what I did with the results later.. I'm pretty sure I'm good on the turn many times here and then the river posed a tricky situation. I checked and thought things through after wanting to just fold but I felt that deviating from my previous lead given what I knew here was determental. I think we may see a full house here some percent of the time but I thought it seemed highly unlikely.

That being said, beyond being pretty sure I had the best hand a good deal of the time on the turn I felt the river made things as merky as they could be.

[tongni]

This is such an ugly hand. Check the turn. Fold to the raise. Fold the river out of turn.