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#1
07-30-2005, 02:37 AM
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need helping determing what normal variance is
in about a 3 hour session today, i went up 2 1/2 buy ins, then dropped about 4 buy ins.
then i started another session about 2 hours ago and i'm up 4 buy ins. is this normal variance or greater than what should be normal? i play 4 tables at a time on the .1/.25 NL. about half of the downstreak was stupid play on my part and about half was bad beats. still, variations of half my bankroll ($200) seem like a lot. 
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#2
07-30-2005, 03:02 AM
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Re: need helping determing what normal variance is
your bankroll is too small. typical SD/100 can be anywhere from 20 (for nutpeddlers) to 50 (TAG standard, i think) to 100 (LAG).
if your win rate is 10 PTBB/100 and your SD is 50PTBB/100, then there's a 68% chance that for any given set of 100 hands you're between -40PTBB and 60PTBB. there's a 95% chance that you're beteen -90PTBB and 110PTBB. (all this stuff makes an assumption that you're 100 hand cycles will result in a gaussian, which isn't necessarily true, but makes the math easier) so. yes, perfectly normal, but you need a bigger bankroll. 8 buy-ins is way too short.
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#3
07-30-2005, 03:55 AM
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Re: need helping determing what normal variance is
whats a typical bankroll then? i thought i read somewhere here that 8 buy ins should be your bankroll for NL.
and whats the SD/100 of 50 and PTBB mean? also.. is there any free software that will calculate things like this? $55 is a lot when its 1/4 your bankroll.
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#4
07-30-2005, 01:05 PM
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Re: need helping determing what normal variance is
SD is standard deviation, PTBB is PokerTracker Big Bet...just 2X the big blind. It's the unit of measure that PokerTracker uses.
15-20 buy-ins is typically recommended for recreational players that don't want to ever have to replenish their bankroll from outside money. 10 is fine for a casual player that can just rebuy if they bust. 30-50 is what pros and semi-pros usually keep. all of these are just rules of thumb though. people keep whatever bankroll they're comfortable with. you can calculate your actual bankroll requirements if you know your win rate and SD. see here. that link will also tell you how to calculate your risk of ruin with your current bankroll, win rate, and SD. i'm guessing that with only 8 buyins the risk of ruin would be around 5-10%.
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