Does anyone NOT push this?

[morgan180]

I think its close if the villain is calling with the top 20% of hands – the cEV is there but the ICM is very close.

Out of 10 times:
8 times you will push and they will fold: +2400 cEV
2 times you will push and get called, of those two times you will lose 1340 in chips 51.76% of the time: -694 cEV
So overall your cEV is: +1706

ICM looks close in that if you fold here you still retain roughly 25% of the prize pool, whereas if you push and get called by the top 20 percent on average you are looking at 26.3% of the prize pool. (correct my math if it is wrong)

So while I would push this, I think it is one of those “disasters if you are called” as curtains puts it. It all depends on if he is calling or not.

Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: RU2003 ( $2067 )
Seat 2: StneColdCall ( $2034 )
Seat 7: rocketman73 ( $1340 )
Seat 8: rjb922 ( $2559 )
Trny:14320606 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)

1-
You push they fold
RU2003 2067
StneCold 2334
Rocketman 1340
Rjb922 2559
27.31% of the prize pool

2 – you fold
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 2034
Rocketman 1640
Rjb9222 2559
24.89% of the prize pool

3 – you push get called and win
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 3674
Rocketman 0
Rjb922 2559
36.72% of prize pool

4 – you push get called and lose
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 694
Rocketman 2690
Rjb922 2559
11.39% of prize pool

5- you push and tie
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 2154
Rocket 1490
Rjb922 2559
25.96% of prize pool

If villain will call with top 20%:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5428 % 42.85% 02.70% { KsJh }
Hand 2: 54.4572 % 51.76% 02.70% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

if you are called 20% of the time:
Win: .4285
Lose: .5176
Tie: .027

.3672*.4285 + .1139*.5176 + .2596*.027 = .1573 + .05895 + .007 = .2235

22.35% of the prize pool*.2 + .2731*.8 = .0447+ .21848 = .263

so 26.3-24.89 = +1.41% of the prize pool

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think ICM overestimates your equity after getting called & losing in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming your opponent is calling with the top 20% of hands, you would have to assume your equity after you lose is reduced by 95% of the default ICM lose-value for this to be breakeven, and even more to be a losing play... meaning ICM says you will have 11.4% equity if you lose, but you'd have to drop to 0.57% equity when losing for this play to actually be breakeven, assuming the other ICM values are correct.

ICM maybe be off somewhat here, but I don't think its that off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I stand corrected.

[lastchance]

1.5% of the prize pool is generally way more than enough to decide whether or not to push. In a $10 SNG, you win $1.50 right then and there just for picking up KJo and shoving it.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its close if the villain is calling with the top 20% of hands – the cEV is there but the ICM is very close.

...

so 26.3-24.89 = +1.41% of the prize pool

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not very close. 1.41% edge at this point is pretty big.

[ QUOTE ]
It all depends on if he is calling or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

As someone already mentioned, it really doesn't. Now if you want to argue that ICM is overvaluing you when you become the SS, then that would affect this more as you will be called more often. But for any practical purposes I doubt it does.

[ QUOTE ]
If villain will call with top 20%:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5428 % 42.85% 02.70% { KsJh }
Hand 2: 54.4572 % 51.76% 02.70% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[/ QUOTE ]

The top 20% range I get from eastbay's calc is 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+.

[The Yugoslavian]

How have 8 people voted for not push?

I guess I better read this thread? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I can't imagine anyone is really suggesting anything but allin...hmmm.

Yugoslav

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
1.5% of the prize pool is generally way more than enough to decide whether or not to push. In a $10 SNG, you win $1.50 right then and there just for picking up KJo and shoving it.

[/ QUOTE ]

now that you put it that way... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Jimbobobb]

To the 9 (imho) absolutely insane people who say to not push here, if you won't push with a top 20% hand from the SB when folded to on a regular basis in this position (blinds/stacksizes/etc), what exactly 'do' you consider to be 'push-worthy'?

It's already been pointed out that this is a clear +ev play in every sense. You can't win without +EV, but you can get cancer and die.

[Mr_J]

I'd like to hear someone try to explain to me why this ISN'T an auto push...

Don't wanna hear anything about luckboxes.

[Mr_J]

"If you have pushed the last 5 hands, wouldn't you think ICM would change here? The opponents calling standards would drastically change."

I still push. They can feel free to call me with their K8s or QJ. If they loosen their calling range, most of the hands they add you are a good favourite over.

[ChrisV]

Dear God. How is there such a long thread on this?

Anyone voting Don't Push, please send me some of what you're smoking. I'll use it for pain relief when im in hospital.