Two-way river bet too much?

[cjmewett]

Full Tilt $.50/1 NLHE 6-max

No reads on Villain, though I'm not sure how much that matters in this case. My image is slightly laggish, if anyone's paying attention.

Seat 1: Villain ($85.45)
Seat 2: MP ($97.15)
Seat 3: CO ($41.60)
Seat 4: HERO ($128.95) BUTTON
Seat 5: SB ($31.50)
Seat 6: BB ($39)

SB posts the small blind of $0.50
BB posts the big blind of $1

<font color="red">PREFLOP</font>

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO <font color="blue"> [Qs Jd] </font>

Villain calls $1
MP folds
CO folds
HERO raises to $4.50
SB folds
BB folds
Villain calls $3.50

<font color="red">*** FLOP *** [Qc 4h Js]</font> ($10.50)

Villain checks
HERO checks

<font color="red">*** TURN *** [Qc 4h Js] [2c]</font> ($10.50)

Villain checks
HERO bets $10.50
Villain calls $10.50

<font color=" red">*** RIVER *** [Qc 4h Js 2c] [Ac]</font> ($31.50)

Villain checks
HERO bets $20

*****************************

Possibly misplayed on all streets. After the turn I put him on AJ/KJ/TJc. I'm thinking he'll call a reasonable bet on the river with any of those hands, though retrospectively maybe I should have slowed down on the ace (as it's either a scare card for him or makes his hand).

Comments, particularly on the river play?

[djoyce003]

why'd you check the flop? He's expecting a continuation bet anyway, no need to disguise your hand. I'd probably check behind on that river, every draw on earth just came in and a checkraise would make me puke here.

[theben]

does he fold a good amt. of time pf to that raise or give up on the flop? i hope so

lead the flop, lead the turn then figure out where to go on the river

[cjmewett]

[ QUOTE ]
does he fold a good amt. of time pf to that raise or give up on the flop? i hope so

lead the flop, lead the turn then figure out where to go on the river

[/ QUOTE ]I've been playing table captain for the better part of two hours, so yes. Remember also that this is 6-max; the large majority of my raising value here is on a continuation-bet flop.

[amoeba]

because so much of your flop betting is continuation bets, its all the more reason to bet with a real hand here.

[theben]

lead the flop for his reason and also readability

if you always check your sets and 2 pair. . . uh oh thats a leak

[cjmewett]

[ QUOTE ]
if you always check your sets and 2 pair. . . uh oh thats a leak

[/ QUOTE ]What exactly makes you think this is the case?

The money to be made at this table is from disguising big hands and letting opponents hit something. I don't ALWAYS check two pair in this situation (and a set only perhaps 15% of the time).

Having said that, I'm open to the suggestion that I should bet this flop. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'd like to get action from a naked Jack, obviously.

[amoeba]

what second best hand are they going to hit thats going to pay you off?

you raised preflop so whatever they're going to the felt with will have something like AQ beat and most hands that have AQ beat has QJ two pair beat as well.

[djoyce003]

actually this is really transparent. Someone that is last to act on the flop and checks, and then raises a harmless looking turn card screams set/twopair/flopped straight, etc. If you are getting this to work, bravo but i'm surprised at it. I always do a continuation bet so i'd do one here too. I will let up on them if the continuation bets are getting no respect and then i'll check a strong hand so that I can checkraise...that is evidently not what happened here, you are slowplaying a big hand. I think villain is beating you on the river though so i'd still check behind...had you bet the flop and the river, you'd have been able to check behind on the river and make the same amount, or lose the same amount and still see a showdown and not risk a raise.

[cjmewett]

What? This is almost incoherent.

Why and to what do you think I'm behind?

I'm not all that concerned about metagame/image issues at this level. The vast majority of these guys think I'm a lucky donk who's just learning.