Assuming Pinnacle knows all...a betting strategy.

ctv1116 · #1 07-25-2005, 09:03 AM

OK, so I've been reading around the various sports betting forums, and I've noticed that universally people say that Pinnacle has the sharpest lines, and that other recreational "square" books skew their lines so that the favorite/over has bad lines and the underdog/under good lines (because the recreational player will mainly bet favorites, increasing the book's edge).

In light of this fact, I propose a betting strategy: Take the average of a baseball game's Pinny line (e.g. +137/-145 would be +/-141). Now, take any bet which deviates from that number (i.e. if VIP were offering +144 you'd bet the dog +144 at VIP).

Some initial problems I see with this strategy:

1. You hope that Pinnacle is giving the true line and not a skewed line to get some action on a particular side.

2. Most of said "square" books will cut your limits if you bet on too many dogs (or if you're just winning) from what I hear. Thus you might not be able to make much before they cut your limits or give you a dual line.

I'd like to hear from the regs what you think of this strategy.

primetime32 · #2 07-25-2005, 11:49 AM

people have tried this and it hasnt worked in the past. If you want to run this by more experienced sports gamblers head over to the Rx.com. go to offshore section and someone should help you out.

If you are looking for really good odds, check out the mansion exchange as well. You can pick off a few really weird lines once in a while.

tech · #3 07-25-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now, take any bet which deviates from that number

[/ QUOTE ]

If you change the above statement to "any bet which deviates far enough from that number to beat the vig," you are much closer to having a winning system. Read my post from a couple of weeks ago called "General Betting Tips" or something like that. If you can consistently find lines that are far enough away from "sharp" lines (at Pinnacle or anywhere else), you will win over the long term.

Losing all · #4 07-25-2005, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Take the average of a baseball game's Pinny line (e.g. +137/-145 would be +/-141). Now, take any bet which deviates from that number (i.e. if VIP were offering +144 you'd bet the dog +144 at VIP).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you'd make a killing using this example. You wont find many baseball dogs getting 7 cents more than pinny, very rare. You're on the right track though.

ctv1116 · #5 07-25-2005, 10:43 PM

Really, I see it every day between Pinny/VIP on at least one baseball game during the day.

Losing all · #6 07-26-2005, 03:53 AM

Hmmm. I use 5 Dimes overnights(5 cent) and Pinny as the starting point of my scalp hunts and rarely find 2 cents better on dogs on any of my other sites. I don't have a vip account though, if they really are that square you'll most likely get cut/booted in quick order.