Problem on the turn

[Stevo]

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I think you guys are missing the fact that this guy thinks a flush beats a full house. Don't lay this down! Raise! Raise!

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No, I lost to a bigger full house. I'm just seeing if there was a good way to notice that someone else hit higher than I did, or if its just "an unfortunate thing I can't prevent".

I should imagine that anyone posting on this site at least has the rank of hands down.

[Tailgunner]

Not likely I'd be able to pin anyone with the one hand that can beat me when the same card not only completed a flush, but also opened low draws. I can see a number of hands making a move at this... how many would depend on my read, but it's probably not going to be solid enough online to be sure the K5 is among them. Even on the outside chance it was there you've still got a redraw to a nut scoop and two other players tagging along for the ride. No way I'd let this one go, and I'd jam to make those lows pay through the nose to try and split.

[lighterjobs]

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No, I lost to a bigger full house. I'm just seeing if there was a good way to notice that someone else hit higher than I did, or if its just "an unfortunate thing I can't prevent".

I should imagine that anyone posting on this site at least has the rank of hands down.

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losing with the second nuts to the nuts is just a tough beat. you shouldn't ever be too cautious with a hand like this, especially with low draws and a three flush on the board. you should have jammed the turn.

[Buzz]

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I decide to play the 2-3-K-Q double suited from the button.

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Stevo - Just to give you a very rough idea of the value of your starting hand, the Texas hold 'em equivalent of your starting hand is roughly A6s or A5s - something in that neighborhood.

At any rate you decide to see the flop and you flop a full house, kings over treys. You surely have the best hand immediately after the flop, but will it last?

You shouldn't like opponents hanging in there with low draws and ending up taking away half of your pot. You can, and should, at least make it expensive for them to draw out on you.

Anyone who has the case king will hang in there for the 2nd and 3rd betting rounds, and probably even the 4th betting round if unimproved with an ace kicker. There's not much you can do in a limit game about an opponent who has the case king possibly drawing out on you, but you can, and should, at least make it expensive for an opponent with the case king to try.

What starting hands that contain a king might your opponents be playing? Hard to say exactly, but king is a popular card and is found in many starting hands. What are the odds one of the four opponents who saw the flop was dealt the case king? Assuming they're playing random cards, roughly 29 to 16, or about two to one against. Depending on your opponents, they might be slightly more or less likely than random to have the case king.

Then what are the odds of an opponent who was dealt the case king improving to a better full house than yours? Depends, but assuming an opponent holds AKQJ, any of six turn or river cards beat you and any of two turn or river cards tie you.

The odds are 528 to 219 (73 ties) that you'll win even if an opponent was dealt a king - about 2.4 to 1.

The probability of an opponent who holds AKQJ making a better full house than yours is 219/820 or 0.267. Combining probabilities, you figure to encounter a better full house than yours at the showdown 0.356*0.267 = a bit less than ten per cent. Thus your hand figures to be a winner here for high about ninety per cent of the time. Of that, you'll split with an equal full house maybe three per cent of the time.

And when you don't get beaten for high, low will be possible only about a third of the time. Something like that. And there's no guarantee an opponent will qualify for low if low becomes possible.

Thus mostly you're home free here. Indeed, you're a huge favorite to scoop, and if you don't scoop, you're even more of a favorite to at least get a share of this pot. That's immediately after the flop.

Thus you definitely should raise for value after someone already bets this flop for you. No question about it. Make them pay. You should raise and re-raise as much as possible on the second betting round.

After the turn, assuming you have jambed on the second betting round (as you should), you will need to re-evaluate the situation based on the turn card and the betting. You may want to continue jambing, or maybe not. In any event, you're at least stuck in this hand for the duration.

After the river, you again should re-evaluate the situation. You may want to continue betting and/or raising, or maybe not.

As it turns out, this is one of those times, one of the the ten per cent or so, when you get burned by a better full house.

That's tough, but it's part of the game. Getting burned the 1/10 when you're a 9/10 favorite doesn't even qualify as a bad beat.

Just my opinion. Never a guarantee about my math.

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Bet and 2 raises back to me. Should I lay down my Kings full of 3s?

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Absolutely not!

A bet and two raises before it gets to you?! What kind of reckless fools are playing against you?! Whatever. In my humble opinion you do not have a raise after the turn card a bet, and two raises, but you do have a clear call. Someone is blowing smoke here, and maybe more than just one opponent. One opponent could have fives full while another has kings full - but what could the third money-into-the-pot initiator hold?

As it turns out, since you lost to a higher full house, you obviously would have been better off folding at any time. But there isn't any way you could have foreseen that. You were a great favorite with extremely favorable odds after the flop. Sometimes you lose even though the odds are greatly in your favor. But even though you sometimes might lose, I think you have to bet and raise when you have greatly favorable odds to do so.

Thus, in my humble opinion, not raising on the second betting round was a mistake - and would also be a mistake any time in the future in the same or an equivalent situation - even though the raise might turn sour.

Just my opinion.

Buzz