Flop and river...

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB calls $4 (All-In), <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (15.90 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
Hero checks

What do we think? Flop and river.

Krishan

[Alobar]

Im undecided on the flop, but I think the river is an easy bet. Youve got all the good clubs so I dont see anyone betting. I think youll see more calls from hands that just cant let go, or middle clubs, than you will some sort of bluffs or weak value bets or something.

[imported_ncray]

I like the first call on the flop. You goal is to get as much money into the pot as possible, since you have huge equity with the nut flush draw and backdoor straight. Raising might force others out of the pot, and you are quite sure that MP or CO will raise for you. After CO raises, I like your 3-bet. CO and SB will definitely call for 2 more SBs. If you chose to overcall, there's no guarantee that MP will raise, leaving you with maybe 1SB max.

I think I like leading the river here. If CO doesn't have a flush (what flush could he possible have with the A, K, Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] taken given the action), he won't bet with SB still in the pot. Maybe headsup this is a good idea though, to induce a desparation bluff.

[NLSoldier]

Flop is fine, I don't like the river at all because you have both the A and the Q and the K and T are out there, so the only thing he will bet is probably the Jack and would have to have exactly JJ to have a Jack in his hand given the preflop cap.

[sy_or_bust]

The flop play looks nice, but I'm not sure what is accomplished by folding MP. You can't clean up outs and you're in bad position. With CO's raise indicating at least a king or strong draw, I don't imagine you have any fold equity worth pursuing either. The 3-bet may still be +EV, especially if MP might call 2. I'm interested in others' thoughts.

And the river...nah. Best read says he has a king, and you have the first and second nut cards, so it'll be very tough for CO to bet and then call a raise with a worse hand. KK/TT would reraise the turn, and JJ butchered the flop. I'm thinking he has a non-flush AK/KQ that will call more often than bet, and rarely bet/call.

[ISF]

I dont like the flop or the river. On the flop the raise may be slightly +EV on that street, but it gives away your hand and lowerers your EV on future streets. The river I think is really bad you are much more likely to get a call from a pair then a bet.

[MrFeelNothin]

I would like the flop a lot better if SB wasnt almost all-in. As it is, his money is going to go into the pot no matter what so your 3bet isnt going to get any extra money into the pot the times that it drives MP out, which will happen &gt;50% of the time in my opinion. If you just call the raise, MP calls as well and your opponents put the same amount in and you put in one small bet less. Of course, if MP isnt driven out you are getting 2:1 on your money with 9 outs to the nuts and 3 likely outs, but I dont think this happens enough to make a 3bet correct. If SB had more money it would be a different story altogether.

I definitely like the original call.

River- I think NLSoldier hit my thoughts directly. You have the A AND the Q and the K and 10 are out there. SO, you are basically hoping he has EXACTLY JxJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because that is the only hand he can have that is betting and calling a check-raise on that river.

[Jeffage]

Love the flop, hate the river. People may call with a pair or crap club here but not bet them when checked to.

Jeff

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the flop or the river. On the flop the raise may be slightly +EV on that street, but it gives away your hand and lowerers your EV on future streets. The river I think is really bad you are much more likely to get a call from a pair then a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sorta disagree. The reason I checked is because ALL (except the J) the clubs are accounted for. I think it's much more likely that this guy was calling down with a pair and will fold the river when the 4th club hits. When I check to him I think I'll get a bluff more often than he'll call with a worse hand. The times I get a crying curiosity call is icing on the cake.

Krishan

[JoshuaD]

I'm playing the rest of the hand the same, but betting this river. You get crying calls alot and you need to give some "thinker" with a lone club the opportunity to value-raise your set.