AQs flush draw from the SB

[Entity]

Good reads.

Bet the river.

[ClonexxSA]

Thank you all for your input and reads on the situation. I really have no idea what was in my head when I checked the river Q for top pair.

Should I post the results, or do you guys think you can take shots at what the Button and MP3 are holding before I do? I had a good idea of what the Button was holding, MP3 I was unsure of throughout the hand.

[Sir Bruce]

You do a good job describing where you went wrong. You should definitely bet the turn. You have maybe 13.5 outs - 9 to nut flush, 1.5 to the straight (discounted by any 6s out there) - and ~3 for the overcards. Your equity is around 27-28% and you're facing 3 calling stations. That is a huge edge, and you need to push it.

Given your passiveness on the turn, playing for a check-raise on the river is also a bad move if you make your hand because you expect the button to bet, and, if he does, you should call looking for overcalls. Raising the button costs you at least one bet by forcing out callers you beat, maybe more if he reraises.

Why do you say that MP3 has a good chance of betting the river? He's shown no aggresion before and is a known calling station. Given that he did bet the river, you should raise, trapping the button for extra bets.

[Boolean]

With a hand that strong, rounding down you have about 15 outs. 9 outs for the flush, 3 for the gutshot wheel draw, and roughly 3 for your overcards. So you have about 33% pot equity here. Since you have good reads determining that the hangers-on are pretty loose, I think you can be sure at least 2 will call you to the river, and often times enough, all 3 will call, netting you a nice profit.

On the river, you have to lead this river and call a raise. What hands are you behind here that they're likely to have? If they have Q4 or Q2, the only likely hands due to their betting patterns, I'd pay them off. Bet for value here. If you think that by checking you can induce a weaker hand to bet here, I'd go for a check-raise. You have a very strong hand and it's not very likely you're beat.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
Your equity is around 27-28% and you're facing 3 calling stations. That is a huge edge, and you need to push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

disregarding the number outs that might be dirty...assuming our equity is 27-28%. With 3 opponents, our current expected average equity would be 25%, no? I wouldn't call it a huge edge...and if any of them fold any existing edge evaporates - again, not huge.

[Entity]

I don't really think a turn bet is as necessary as most people are making it out to be. That gutshot draw doesn't strengthen your hand all that much. If I'm betting here it's becasue I think there's a reasonable chance I have the best hand.

Rob

[ClonexxSA]

Results below, don't read if you haven't commented on the hand and want to.











*RESULTS*

I tried to post this and analyze as best as I could without being result oriented. The outcome of this hand surprised me honestly, and is definitely not typical.

Button showed down J6o, which is no big surprise to me, he has been doing that all night. I put him on Jx, even as high as J 10.

MP3 however was a surprise. I had him on anywhere from AK to AJ with maybe KQ, KJ and J 10 thrown in for good measure until the river. When he bet the river my read really put him on having a Q, and since he bet and usually is very passive I thought he may even have me beat there with QJ. He showed down AA. Given the way this hand played out, it surprised me. Even as passive as he was, I did not even give a thought to him being able to play an overpair in the manner this hand was played.