Put on your mirror shades and help me stare into villain's SOUL!

MisterKing · #1 06-18-2005, 07:40 PM

Opponent is 52/0/1.2 over a very small sample (~20 hands) at this point, have seen him chase badly once, and play TPTK somewhat well another. While I may have misplayed this hand (do feel free to comment), I think its interesting to think about trying to put villain on a hand. What three or four hands do you think are most likely for him here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks.

Crap, there went my check-raise try... Nothing from villain yet, either.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

I value call my fourth nuts, figuring I'd have heard from better hands by now, and that there may be many weaker draws (straight, flush, whatever) out there that would come along and maybe even make a hand for me to beat on the end. Interestingly, still nada from villain here!

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

I did NOT like to see that cap from MP1. Totally unexpected. So what's he got? 88, 87, JT, T6s... the list could go on for a while, really.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Piiop · #2 06-18-2005, 07:45 PM

I would just bet the flop and I would definitely bet the turn. Since you didn't do either, you needed to checkraise the turn. I have no idea why you didn't, you know you had a full house right. If anyone is on a draw, they're calling 2 on the turn but not on the river when the miss.

Wow, gj on the river finally putting in some bets. I'd say JT is likely, followed by 99 and whatever else, it doesn't matter.

billyjex · #3 06-18-2005, 07:49 PM

i love getting no value out of my full houses!

bet the flop. bet the turn. raise the turn.

oreogod · #4 06-18-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i love getting no value out of my full houses!

bet the flop. bet the turn. raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That is some nice slowplaying there.

MisterKing · #5 06-18-2005, 08:01 PM

Ok, so the turn is pretty bad, I'll grant you. Draws will often pay to continue here, as an earlier poster said. OTOH, any draw to either a straight or a flush that I fold out on the turn that would have got there on the end is a hand I'm not collecting bets from on the river.

There are very, very few hands I'm ahead of on the turn that can draw out on me, and all of those hands are drawing very thin. Most of these hands would surely have been raised PF or bet on the flop... big overpairs, and so on -- meaning I can eliminate many (but not all) from consideration. So I'd argue that while it may not be the best line, there are at least a few considerations in favor of slowplaying on the flop and turn.

But back to the original question. Since you're so smart, what's he holding?

chesspain · #6 06-18-2005, 08:06 PM

Just remember--they can't call or raise if you don't bet.

ihardlyknowher · #7 06-18-2005, 08:13 PM

Bet flop. Bet turn. Bet river.

billyjex · #8 06-18-2005, 08:18 PM

I don't care what he has. I don't feel we need to go to an in depth analyis at Party 3/6 of my opponents holdings when I have a boat. Missing a flop C/R is ok but once you miss you have to bet the turn.

sweetjazz · #9 06-18-2005, 09:46 PM

The greatest hand reading in the world can't make up for all those missed bets on the earlier streets. That's what others are trying to point out to you.

MP1 could be holding anything here JT, T6, 65, 88, 87, AA, who knows. But not capping the river would be horrible, and it's a shame that you didn't get more bets in on earlier streets.

On such an uninspiring flop, betting out is better than going for a check-raise. Not only could you whiff, but the check-raise is likely to scare people into calling instead of raising. The direct bet is not going to stop people from calling, and it may get you raised on the turn if, say, some hits an overcard for top pair.

Given the flop check, you shouldn't check the turn, because it may get checked around and it may get checked to the button who bets, so that if you raise, you may knock people out. Bet the turn and maybe you'll get raised by someone who thinks you're full of it or has a weaker made hand or is bluffing a draw or what have you.

On the river, the goal is to get as many bets into the pot as possible. Hand reading is, frankly, irrelevant because you're going to have the equity to raise no matter how great your hand reading is.

shadow29 · #10 06-18-2005, 09:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i love getting no value out of my full houses!

bet the flop. bet the turn. raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That is some nice slowplaying there.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by nice you mean bad and if by bad you mean terrible, than yeah, sure. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

OP: I think you missed some bets here. I don't really see any need to get tricky. My guess is JT.

edit- And by some bets, I mean a lot.