Simple checkraise turns into big decision

[PokerPrince]

Good mid-limit Max6 game playing loose and juicy. Two EP players limp, Button raises, SB folds and I call in the BB with AJ. EPs call and we see the flop 4 ways with me acting first.

Flop- A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I decide I'm going to go for a checkraise here and possibly knock out some gutshot holdings. So I check, EP bets, other EP raises and now Button(PF raiser) 3-bets. Uh oh. What is your line here?

Assume loose players who are bad but not horrendous.

PokerPrince

[steveyz]

If there was ever a time to fold top 2 on the flop, this might be it. Best case scenario for you is to be chopping with another AJ and having the other opponents be on some kind of pair + gut-shot. Most likely though, I'd say you're behind a set, and someone may have KQ. Unless the 3-bettor is extremely aggressive, I say you can probably lay it down because it looks like it's gonna be extremely expensive for you to see a showdown.

[TBag]

Is that a standard call preflop? I usually raise that preflop, but on to the question at hand.

Folding this hand would be a huge mistake. You're behind AA, JJ, TT, and KQ. The odds that someone has AA or JJ are really low. Possible, but low. Given the action preflop, I doubt the two limpers have anything that beats you, and the only player I'd worry about is the button. (Would these loosies limp in with KQ or a PP better than 9's?).

The hands I see Button playing this way is AK, AQ, AA, JJ, TT, KQ, and JT.
Hands you beat-
AK - 8 combos
AQ - 8 combos
JT - 9

Hands you lose to-
AA - 1
JJ - 1
TT - 3
KQ - 16

It's 25 to 21 (if I counted right, I think I did...) and the pot is much too big to lay down at this point.

Anyways, I would go ahead and cap (it's probably gonna be capped anyways, and if someone is drawing to the gutshot, this would give them worse odds to call), lead the turn, and if it's capped by the time it gets to you, drop out.

[Gabe]

Since the pot is not head-up, your analysis barely begins to scratch the surface.

[TBag]

Why?

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action preflop, I doubt the two limpers have anything that beats you, and the only player I'd worry about is the button. (Would these loosies limp in with KQ or a PP better than 9's?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say this statement is inaccurate?

[steveyz]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action preflop, I doubt the two limpers have anything that beats you, and the only player I'd worry about is the button. (Would these loosies limp in with KQ or a PP better than 9's?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say this statement is inaccurate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not inaccurate, but oversimplified. Just because the only person you are likely to be behind is button doesn't mean he's the only one you have to be afraid of.

I don't necessarily agree that you only have to be afraid of button, but I do agree that in several likely scenarios, only button has hero beat.

First, consider your distribution of hands for PFR. I don't think JT is very likely. Loose-bad players don't tend to raise 2 limpers with that. AK and AQ are possible, but I think the 3-bets suggests AJ, AA, JJ, TT, and KQ are more likely. Even discounting that, just pretend that hero is ahead 50% of the time on the flop. That doesn't necessarily mean he should continue with his hand. Why? Think about how many outs hero has against the hands that beat him. And think about many outs the PFR (and the field) have against hero if hero is ahead. How often does hero have the best hand at showdown? How many bets will it take to get to showdown? These are all things that must be considered.

[Gabe]

I wouldn’t say it is necessarily inaccurate. I would say that saying the button would raise two limper 100% of the time with any JT, is.

My point is that the limpers’ possible hands have to be considered, too, unless you assume that they are simply betting and raising with random hands.

For example, say the first limper is making a lunatic bluff for some reason. The second limper is now raising with a weak Ace. Now the button is a favorite instead of a dog to have you beat. Or for another example, say the first flop bettor has a weak Ace and the first raiser has JT. What hands are left that the button would raise with, now?

You see what I mean? There is quite a dynamic happening in this hand.

[TBag]

It is very possible that I play way too loose and aggressive in hands like this, but I 3-bet that flop with AK and maybe AQ.

And please jump to the conclusion that I'm assuming that I'm right. I do know that it is very likely for me to be wrong when it comes to these discussions. I just like discussing them =P.

On with the hand though.

If we assume that the hero is ahead 1/3 of the time on this board, I think that's good enough odds to justify a call-down at the least.

8.5sb preflop, then a bet, raise, reraise for 6 before the hero calls (which can be assumed will soon be either 12 or 16 more). That makes 20.5-24.5 sb's that costs at most 4 bets to go to the turn. I think you have to at least call this flop, and if the debauchary continues on the turn, then you can get out of the way. This pot is huge, and I think you have to be really, really sure you're horribly beaten to lay this down on the flop.

[elindauer]

Hi PokerPrince,

There are a ton of pair+gutshot and 2-pair hands that you beat, so I'm not overly concerned that you are behind. I'm waffling between calling 3 cold and trying to checkraise the turn in an effort to limit the field, and capping and leading myself. I think both are reasonable.

Good luck.
Eric

[steveyz]

The problem is that this hand doesn't end on the flop and you'll be faced with a lot tough decisions on the turn and river in a huge pot. I'm not saying it's incorrect to continue, but in the game that the poster described, where the players are loose and bad, I'd say hero will have the best hand less than 1/3 of the time, certainly by the showdown he gets there.
Conversely, in the games I usually play, this would be an easy cap baring a strong read.