Playing the Board? Easy call or easy fold? I didn't find it easy.

[rikz]

This was my second hand at the table. I did not have Villain in my PT database.

I am particularly interested in the river decision. What would you do and why? Comments on other streets welcome.

I raised with a marginal hand that I would have folded UTG, but that I was confident raising with on the button. I then bet out with a flush draw on the flop, and took a free card on the turn. On the river, the board had a full house and Villain led into me with an all-in for 3/4 the size of the pot. Easy call? Easy fold? I wasn't sure.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($24.9)
SB ($79.1)
BB ($16)
UTG ($40.23)
UTG+1 ($33.8)
UTG+2 Villain ($16.65)
MP1 ($23.37)
MP2 ($23.85)
MP3 ($21.75)
CO ($68.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 Villain calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 Villain calls $1.25, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1.25.

Flop: ($5.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Villain checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.1</font>, Villain calls $5.10, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($15.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: ($15.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain calls $10.05 (All-In), Hero ????? &lt;&lt;===

[rikz]

This wasn't a bad beat.

I'm genuinely interested in the three concepts involved in this hand for comment.

1- Raising on the button with this hand.

2- Betting the flop with a semi-bluff, then taking the free card on the turn.

3- Some guidance on analyzing a board so strong that villain might well be playing the board, but will win with any Q or any pocket pair.

If the hand is not worth posting, I'll take some posting critisism too. What's not worth looking at so I don't post more like it.

Thanks.

[swolfe]

pretty easy fold based on the way the hand played out. i'm sure he has a pocket pair for a bigger queens-full a higher enough percentage of the time that you can't call.

EDIT: this is basically a math problem. the pot is $15.5 + $10 bet. your best case is a split pot. you have to call $10 to win $12.25.

is he bluffing at least 82% of the time? i doubt it.

[etgryphon]

I think it is a fold. Q's over twos is pretty ugly. I think the opponent has the high pair to the twos to often to make this profitable.

-Gryph

[PinkSteel]

(I am still a donkey but...)

I wouldn't have raised pf w/ KJs, but you'll probably get other posters who would. You knocked out other hands, but the one(s) who call you probably have either PPs or have you dominated. I'd rather just see the flop cheaply.

Flop bet looks OK to me, good semi-bluff.

Turn check looks good too, very dangerous board now.

I fold the river all-in, for same reasons as swolfe &amp; gryph cite.

[kurto]

Just for the record... I like the preflop raise.

(1) JKs is decent enough to play
(2) You have position
(3) You knocked out half your opponents (and could have won it preflop)

Flop- I think if you bet $3 or $5... it would have the same result. If anyone has a queen, they're not folding... a 2 isn't folding and a decent pocket pair will likely look you up. I think you save your save 8BB by betting less.

You can't call the river. The only thing you can beat is a complete bluff... and his stack is too invested to reraise him.

[rikz]

RESULTS:

I folded the river. I felt that villain might have the Q, but that a pocket pair might fit the flop play here as well. The only hand that make sense that I would tie is 2x. But what would he call the preflop raise with holding a 2? A2s or K2s? 22 would make quads... So I folded.

After folding, villain gladly showed his K2s (not diamonds). I thought his preflop play was bad, but he got a nice flop.

I felt like my fold might have been too weak, but I'm glad the responses to this post confirm that they would fold too. These posts confirm my thought at the time that I'm beaten given this action more than I tie enough times to justify a fold. I found the math on this analysis particularly interesting, swolfe.

Also, I agree with kurto that a $3 continuation bet on the flop as a semi-bluff would have served the same purpose and saved 8BBs in this situation.

Finally, on the KJs raise preflop, I still like it for the reasons that kurto enumerated, but I understand why someone might call here too. For me, I struggle to get a PFR over 5% (it's 5.5% now). I would like to raise as much as 6%-7%, so this kind of situation - decent cards plus position - is where I'm really trying to increase the amount and frequency of my preflop raises. I've found that I just need to play better post flop if I play like that!