How do you calculate your odds to call down with hand example

Ponks · #1 01-30-2005, 10:19 PM

Hey guys,

Here's a quickie hand here. How do I calculate my odds to call down? I always thought this seemed so easy but I realized that I don't really know how to. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Also how do you guys play this hand while I'm at it? Assume random 15/30 player, sorry was new to the table and had no pokertrackers stats on him. Would you typically call down or just let him have the small pot?

There is $117 in the pot and it's going to cost me $75 to call down. So I pay $75 to win $117+$75 = $192

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, MP1 calls, SB folds.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 4 BB

sthief09 · #2 01-30-2005, 11:08 PM

it's easier to do it by bets. there are 8 small bets in the pot. you have to put in another 2.5 BB to win the 4 BB in the pot plus his other 2 BB. so you're getting 6-2.5. you have to win 2.5/8 for it to be profitable, which is .31. you'll turn or river a set and beat him probably around 7% of the time (figuring around 1 in 8 you make a set and lose), so you have to be good .31-.07 = .24 or 24% of the time by showdown. this includes the chances he has a flush draw and hits, so you probably have to be ahead on the flop somewhere between 1/3 to 2/5 of the time. this is, in a nutshell, why being out of position sucks

another thing that you have to consider is that if the river is an A there's a good chance he'll give you a free showdown if you're behind. that often makes the odds better than they may seem.at 15/30 though, most players are good at sensign when you're weak and making you pay the maximum.

Ponks · #3 01-31-2005, 12:09 AM

Hey Sthief,

Thanks for the help. One thing I dont get is why I have to be good 2.5/8 times? Just curious how you calculated it. I'm not really sure, but I was thinking it should be 2.5/8.5? Please correct me if I'm wrong here.

To sum it all up, yes, being out of position sucks.

Ponks

sthief09 · #4 01-31-2005, 12:28 AM

yeah 2.5/8.5