Painful laydown

[esbesb]

If this buy-in is $50 or less, I make the call easily. I may even make the call on a $100 buy in.

People are crazy this early on. I think the chances that he has A9, K9, Q9, J9 or T9 are much higher than the chances that he has a set or KK or AA.

We know he's not playing the hand logically. That much is a given. He can protect a set against a flush by making a pot-sized (or even smaller bet). A crazy overbet might make some strange sense if he caught trips with overcards on the board and figures you are also crazy and will call with top pair. But most people are too excited by trips to want to bet it all.

I think 90% of the time you are good here.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
lets just say he has A,9 hearts,

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How many 9h are there in this deck?

[ QUOTE ]
and 28 cards left.

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You gotta include the cards the other people had face down. They mighta had some of those outs, no?

[Iconoclastic]

"Some people act weak when they're strong, and strong when they're weak. Of course that may not be his style."

I suspect that your options are all close to neutral EV, possibly against a low made hand + flush draw- aka a race. Also maybe a set or two pair.

If you think you can outplay the table fold. If not then put your chips at risk.

[microbet]

Not really a reply to you, but to the idea that it is possibly a laydown at the higher levels.

Do better players get dealt better cards? Are they more likely to make a huge bet when they hit trips than a bad player is? I know in a game where everyone is tricky, everyone is tricky. That certainly doesn't mean they always have the nuts.

Seems like time to fold QQ here is when you are in Las Vegas on a holiday weekend and a guy with a WSOP hat agonizes like Solomon asked him to divide his child by 2 and then pushes his chips in like his hand might get bitten by the Wood Beast in Flash Gordon.

[rybones]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
lets just say he has A,9 hearts,



How many 9h are there in this deck?

Quote:
and 28 cards left.



You gotta include the cards the other people had face down. They mighta had some of those outs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

As for the how many 9s question, well whatever. As for the face down cards issue: no you don't include those because you don't know. I did include the Qh that he was holding however. Alas, there are 8 hearts out there, 2 nines (i think i said this before but somehow you think my math is fuzzy -- are you george bush), and 3 aces. that is 13 outs. and yes there are 28 cards left that means ROUHGLY half the cards left to come could help me. Moreover, I assume that the original poster sees himself as fairly good. that means that risking nearly everything on a race is not necessarily a good move. Additionally, my analysis doesn't even mention the fact that the other guy might have trips. the betting certainly makes that look possible as well.

Anyway these are just my thoughts. I don't mean to negate what you say. sure it is likly he is ahead in the hand at this point. Given the texture of the game I can see why some might say call. My real issue with your responce is the way you throw out my analysis as though it is way off base without really proving it wrong through any numerical/logical analysis.

again, just my thoughts

Ryan

[microbet]

When you are trying to figure out how likely he is to say hit a flush, you divide by 45, not 28. His two cards are assumed hearts, your cards and the flop you know. There are 45 cards for which the suit is unknown. So he would have 13 outs out of 45 cards. Well, really 11 outs because it is impossible for him to have the 9h.

[rybones]

see, this is where I messed up. Thanks!

Ryan

[microbet]

np

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
You are in even worse shape if he has 7,8 hearts. That is a hand I love to call a raise with early in a tourney because I know if this flop hits I am a big favorite to win a big stack from the raiser who likely has an over pair. Good fold!! I might even fold A,A here?


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Actually, on this particular flop with a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you would only be a 56% favorite against an overpair -- and that's assuming your opponent doesn't have a heart. If your opponent has a heart you would be a 51% favorite.