Bubble Call Question

[NegativeEV]

Assume this is a $22-$55 SnG.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t4020)
Button (t935)
SB (t1720)
Hero (t1325)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t935 (All-In)</font>, SB folds, Hero.........

Final Pot: t1235

[NegativeEV]

Assume that this is early in the 100/200 blind level. My thoughts below assume that these blinds will hold for at least one more orbit.

ICM says Hero needs to win only 22% of the time to make this call correct. So according to ICM, this is a call unless Hero has a read on villian as very tight on the bubble.

I still lay down here due to the Folding Equity implications of laying down vs. calling. I believe Hero retains signifcant FE if he lays down here which allows Hero to maximize his bubble skills. Since FE is critical in bubble play, and Hero's skill on the bubble exceeds that of the other players (let's assume this to be so), I believe the retention of FE when Hero lays down makes this fold correct. If Hero calls and loses, his FE becomes zero and his skill advantage is removed. If Hero folds, his FE is retained and his skill advantage is retained.

I understand that ICM is not a perfect model (especially when it comes to putting a value on FE at/near the bubble in a SnG environment), and I think this is a case where my general play would vary from what ICM dictates.

Who thinks I'm dumb?

[Mr_J]

Do you play $33s?

[NegativeEV]

Assume this is a $20-$55 SnG. My thoughts don't change in this case for any of these levels. If your thoughts do change for these levels, please explain. I don't have enough experience at the $109+ tables to comment, but I believe a call would be more correct at the higher tables as Hero's expected edges would decrease overall.

[Mr_J]

No it's just that I've played someone with almost the exact same nick at the $33s (last few days).

[rachelwxm]

NegativeEV,

Using ICM
equity folding 18.7
equity win all in 32.6
equity lost all in 7.8

So the break even winning percentage is 44%. I guess if you put him on a ace, fold is ok now.

Sorry I was not clear about bb before.

Just my opinion since you asked. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm assuming that hero will have one more orbit at BB 200 (rather than BB400 as you mention). This changes things in my mind (retain FE at these low limit SnGs with BB of 200). Thoughts?

[rachelwxm]

See my edited post, with 100/200 blinds, I think fold is my choice especially you lost FE if you lost. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Scuba Chuck]

For a moment, let me put myself in the button's position. Big Stack has folded, which is a relief. I am the small stack. After the next orbit, I will have almost zero folding equity. If I wait one more hand, that puts the big stack on the BB, which isn't very desirable. I have the most folding equity against the two middle stacks behind me. I should push with any two cards.

THE REAL UNFORTUNATE PART FOR THE HERO here is that the big stack is immediately to his left. So the current situation, is the only one, in which you can risk your chips without a larger stack behind you. And also, KQo is a pretty good hand. How many times will you have this type of hand to push with and not worry about the big stack?

In the end, it does appear to me now, that this is a fold. Unfortunately, it's just a coinflip now whether the big stack folds to any pushes going forward. And most likely, you'll have to push with any hand, because you're in the same scenario as the Button in the current discussion.

[ericlambi]

KQ is about .66 to win against any two random cards. He doesn't have 2 random cards, he has two cards he decided to push with. Could be AA, could be QJ, could be 66. So let's say your winning chances go down to .5. Does this sound about right?

Now you have to figure out the odds of certain placings if you call or fold. Let's assign these probabilities:

Call &amp; Win: 1st - .25, 2nd - .5, 3rd - .25
Call &amp; Lose: 1st - .025, 2nd - .075, 3rd - .1
Fold: 1st - .1, 2nd - .2, 3rd - .25

Okay, so if you agree with these numbers, it's an easy math equation:

.5( .25 * 250 + .5 * 150 + .25 * 100 ) + .5 ( .025 * 250 + .075 * 150 + .1 * 100 ) = $95

.25 * 100 + .2 * 150 + .1 * 250 = $80

So, if you believe my #s, then it looks like an easy call. The question is how accurate my probability guesses are. If someone wants to plug in more accurate probabilities, that would be helpful.