Hand to Talk About

[SpaceAce]

No matter how many times I read the hand, I can't see a good reason for not raising the river.

SpaceAce

[sale]

Tried to calculate the EV of raising. The EV depends very much on which hands he will call the raise with. It is about break even if:

1) He will fold a jack, but call with a better hand worse than yours.
2) You will have to call a 3 bet, but never win it.

I have no idea how this game plays, but in any game I've played in a raise would be very profitable. What hands do you think he will fold here?

[BarronVangorToth]

While the mindset is bad, this is about as close as I can get:

Pre-flop ... the BB put in the bet, closing out the action, with A-X, hoping you have just a big pair.

The flop comes with an Ace. You bet, apparently not scared. Oh, no, perhaps you have AK / AQ -- he'll call, hoping to dirty two pair you.

Turn: an Ace -- AHA! There is no way you have the case Ace. He'll bet, as you know he has A-X and he wants to make you pay to "catch" -- if you raise ... he'll call you down.

You don't -- his hand is "good" -- so he bets the river.

Likewise, the same mentality with KJ putting you on 10's or maybe KQ suited or something and NOT the Ace seeing as how there are two on the board.

LOTS of hands act like the BB did without having the A2 / JJ / AJ / etc etc.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[Stormwolf]

[ QUOTE ]
No matter how many times I read the hand, I can't see a good reason for not raising the river.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

Manson may believe he will not get called by a worse hand, raising the river will make it very obvious to his opponent that he is beat so, at this level, he folds his losers calls/raises his winners.

[randomchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
nice hand tommy......

[/ QUOTE ]
No doubt, these two should write a book together.

[Kevin J]

A little off topic, but would YOU value bet a pair of jacks on the river after Mason called the turn? Don't think I would. In fact, I might even check an iffy ace (although this is more debatable, since I can expect KK or QQ to pay off).

I suppose it all depends on how much (and how well), his opponent thinks. I'd like a river raise better if his opponent had bet the flop (or check/raised). But because of the lack of draws, I think it improves the likelihood that his opponent is betting the turn and river, not to "charge", or get "paid off", but is either bluffing or trying for 3 bets. IMO-

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]

You will have to call a 3 bet, but never win it.



[/ QUOTE ]

?????

[sale]

Yes, just a computational shortcut/assumption. Would take too long to go into the game theory to find the optimal strategy here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[andyfox]

Nice hand, Tommy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm not so sure about the river raise everyone seems to want. He didn't bet or check-raise the flop, so when he bets the turn, it sure doesn't look like he has an ace Mason can beat. And he's going to fold pretty often to a river raise from Mason, unless he indeed does have him beat.

[mike l.]

"A little off topic, but would YOU value bet a pair of jacks on the river after Mason called the turn? Don't think I would. In fact, I might even check an iffy ace (although this is more debatable, since I can expect KK or QQ to pay off)."

first off mason may check KK on the flop. that's one of his plays he's written about and it makes some sense. no i would not bet a J there but i in particular should because he would call *me* w/ TT and 99 if id been doing the mike l. show and getting out of line. also i can think of just about zero hands with a J that i would be in there with if he raised preflop after one limper. nor any hands w/ an A except AQs.

"I suppose it all depends on how much (and how well), his opponent thinks. I'd like a river raise better if his opponent had bet the flop (or check/raised). But because of the lack of draws, I think it improves the likelihood that his opponent is betting the turn and river, not to "charge", or get "paid off", but is either bluffing or trying for 3 bets."

youre overthinking this. very few opponents he can be against will be thinking on this high of a level. a player looking to get the most out of a very strong hand wouldve went for a checkraise on the flop and/or turn. this is either a bluff or a good but not great hand. either way mason must raise the river and give his opponent the chance to call or reraise with a worse hand.

mason played this hand like his opponent must know he's mason and must care and be worried as a result. that's silly.