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#11
12-31-2004, 07:45 PM
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Re: Broadway--a river decision
[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand? [/ QUOTE ] 90%. He will 3-bet with a full house except for the 5% of the time he's a total moron. The other 5% is a chop because he also had KQ. [ QUOTE ] What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser? [/ QUOTE ] 75% of the time. He could be getting excited by trip jacks, he could have AK or AQ and think your two pair was counterfeited, and it could be a chop. But that's only 25% of the time. Of course, this is all assuming the guy is a retard. If he's good, a 3-bet means you're toast. But I couldn't bring myself to raise and fold to a 3-bet. 
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#13
12-31-2004, 08:13 PM
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Re: Broadway--a river decision
Let's look at it a bit differently. Assuming you lose 75% of the time as suggested, and you have to call 1 bet, with 12.5 BB in the pot then:
EV = (.75 * -1) + (.25 * 12.5) EV = +2.375 You would have to raise 6+ BB before your EV was minimal, so 3 bet'm back or call. At least if he comes over the top of a 3 bet it may put him on slow playing JJ or just plain stupid - a lot of those out there. Or maybe I suck [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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