raise the flop, fold the turn

detruncate · #1 10-24-2004, 12:33 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

MP1 is loose/passive (90% pf, 0.35 Tot-A).

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds...

TredWel · #2 10-24-2004, 01:01 AM

I'd call the turn. Players with .35 Tot-A don't normally bet flush draws. If he hit two pair with A7, you've got six outs, and are still getting implied odds to call. Calling here means that you'd probably have to call the river due to the size of the pot unless a fourth club hits the board.

detruncate · #3 10-24-2004, 04:18 AM

I'm not happy taking all 6 outs against A7... especially if you want to talk implied odds. How hard am I going to be able to push with 4 clubs on the board?

You're right... I wasn't concerned about the flush. This sort of stop and go from a passive player most often means:

1) he improved to 2 pair

2) he flopped a set

There's also one other cat still in the pot who liked his hand enough to call 2 cold on the flop -- which means better implied odds, but less chance of any of my 2-pair outs being good except the 2 non-club tens.

The passenger probably doesn't have a flush, but he might well be tainting my jack outs since it's not out of the question that he called with a pair other than an ace. I'm willing to accept that the combined chances of tainted club and jack 2-pair outs being dirty still leaves 4 outs, but that seems like a lot of bets to make up. Especially since I'm going to be drawing dead to a set at least some of the time.

It all seems to add up to badness. Then again, I've had a few weak/tight moments today. Am I looking at this incorrectly?

Jimbobobb · #4 10-24-2004, 04:41 AM

Passive's don't stop and go pre-flop raisers with anything less than 2 pair. So you're drawing, and might even be drawing dead. Pot isn't massive. Saving yourself 2BB's seems like the right decision. I still can't bring myself to make these laydowns half the time, even though against many they're definitely correct.

TredWel · #5 10-24-2004, 10:15 AM

Yeah, I had a hiccup, since two of your "outs" puts four to a flush on the board. Not to mention that BB called two cold on the flop, and might have the flush and be ready to check-raise. If it were heads up and you were sure about the six outs, then sure, call. But here, it's right to fold after all.