First hand for review

[BigJohn043]

This is an interesting hand.

First off, the check-raise is clearly the right line out of position with a middle pair and a drawing hand. There is little danger of giving a free card because a free card is good for you as well. The big stack will likely bluff at the pot so you get more chips in the middle and your all-in reraise actually has some fold equity.

Now lets think about the line you took. I never know what these BS min-raises mean. Usually they either mean that your opponent is an idiot or they want the call, sometimes both.

In this case, you can eliminate any kind of pure flush draw and he literally can't have any pair with a flush draw as well. That likely means he has something like top pair. I put him on A9, K9, A8, maybe even K8. I guess he could also have a set of 4s. I would have thought that four hand he would have played 88 or 99 for a preflop raise.

Assuming he has a better pair, you have an awful lot of outs. Any club, J and maybe even an 8. Only assuming the J is good you are still at about 50% to win the hand (12/47 with two draws).

The only question is do you call now and see another card before pushing your stack or just push now. If you wait, your decision will be whether to call ~600 into an 1800 pot which is roughly your odds to draw a winner on the river. If you push now your folding equity is essentially zero because the big stack is going to call unless he is on a stone cold bluff which it is hard to believe he is due to the mini-raise.

I think that I call here and see another card. Folding on the turn with 600 chips left gives you a decent chance to get into the money with two other short stacks. But the numbers say that this one is probably pretty close and you could play it either way. Folding is an awful choice.

[tallstack]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, the check-raise is clearly the right line out of position with a middle pair and a drawing hand. There is little danger of giving a free card because a free card is good for you as well. The big stack will likely bluff at the pot so you get more chips in the middle and your all-in reraise actually has some fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the posters like the check-raise option here, but in the interests of generating some discussion, I will play devil's advocate. The big variable that no one is discussing is the aggressiveness of the opponent. As with any check raise, the likelihood of a bet behind you is very important.

You have a hand that is likely the favorite on the flop, but a lot of the strength lies in the flush potential and in having two cards to come. One reason why I do not like the check raise as much here is that you are against only one opponent. The likelihood of a bet behind you depends a lot on your opponent's style. If your opponent on the flop checks behind you then where are you? You have about 14 outs that help you, so if your opponent checks then about 2/3 of the time you will have to make a more difficult decision on the turn. You can lead out on the turn if it is checked behind, but what if you get raised then?

I agree that if you think your opponent will bet then the check raise is perfect, but what if you have no idea that your opponent will bet? I think that depending on your read of the opponent, this hand can be played just fine by betting out on the flop with a hand that is a favorite now, but not as likely to be a favorite on the turn.

Dave S

[BigJohn043]

I am not quite sure why having the flop checked through is such a bad thing.

If a club hits then you have made your flush and the only thing to be worried about is a higher flush draw. Not particularly likely given that it is four handed and 4/13 clubs are accounted for. In any case you are going to get all your chips in the middle with a flush and if you lose then that is life.

If a non-club hits then you are still in very good shape. The fact that the flop was checked through suggests that your middle pair is probably good. This is particularly true if the turn is <8. If the turn is >8 and it hits your opponent then that just happens sometimes.

If it is checked through I lead out on the turn and win the hand 95% of the time. If I am reraised then I have a tough decision, but I probably have a very good sense of what my opponent has.

By check-raising on the flop you have more fold equity, you often get some additional chips in the middle and I don't think it really lowers your chance of winning the hand all that much....

[PuertoKid]

No, I wasn't implying he should fold on the turn. 1st, I think the the 250 bet was limp. 2nd, on the reraise, I think calling is the best option. Then decide what you are going to do on the turn. Some people go all in in this situation because they would rather start a new game than continue in the current game with a low chip stack. I think that is a losing mentality. I don't think going all in here on the flop maximizes one's chances to win.

[Bremen]

You want to call and possibly fold the turn? How does that maximize my chances to win the tourney? Limping into the money with less than 500 chips while profitable gives me very slim chances of winning the thing. While taking a chance here will give me a very healthy chip position with much better chances to win the thing.

[lastchance]

We all agree that check-raising all-in is probably the best situation here, unless you're pretty sure that the other guy's going to check as well here though, right?

Free card does hurt your draw, but the other guy's showing so much weakness with that check, especially as you're looking like you're begging him to take the pot away with a check preflop and a check on the flop.

You're just showing so much weakness with a check on the flop after your preflop check. Check-raise all-in looks so damn good.

[SmileyEH]

This is fine. An alternate line is to checkraise all in.

Your hand is good here a large percentage of the time - and those its not you are drawing to 14 outs ie; against a pair of nines with no clubs in his hand you are a slight favorite.

-SmileyEH

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
no one suggested folding to the raise.

the general consensus was not to bet out the flop, so if your opponent did bet then you could re-raise all-in or fold.

by betting out the flop, when your opponent raises you have no fold equity whatsoever when you re-raise so you can only hope to make your hand.
by check-raising you can win by getting him to fold, or by making your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen to housenuts. He plays goot. I was going to say exactly this, but then saw someone had already said it.