Interesting No Limit Question

[Squirrel]

Any player holds the Jack of Diamonds, he doens't even NEED to KNOW what his other card is.

He can shove KNOWING he is getting much the best of it. Do you see why?

[ClonexxSA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the minimum $200 to try to keep the flush draw in.
He can't call a raise of $700.

Then villian #2 can reraise and you can push the flush draw out.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then what? Watch the first guy call and flip up
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so that you have an 80% chance to
split a 1300 pot and a 20% chance to lose your entire
10k stack? I was simply going to post my answer without
an explanation as David had asked, but since everyone else
seems to be already analyzing this thing, I guess I may as
well jump in too. And I guess my advice to him would be to
not ask people to refrain from posting an analysis until
later, because it seems that whenever he does, nobody pays
attention to it.

Anyway, here's my analysis on the hand. The post implies
that all three players involved in the hand are fairly good
players, so it is unlikely that you will be able to get
the guy behind you to make a big mistake with his flush
draw. So your dilemma is this: if the guy behind you has
nothing but a flush draw (and perhaps a full house draw as
well), he is not going to call a big raise. If you raise,
he will likely fold a pure draw, or reraise with a jack + a
flush draw. If you just call, he will call with a pure draw
but raise with a jack + a flush draw. So, either way, if
the guy behind you has a jack + a diamond draw, he is going
to raise. His raise may or may not be large enough to
justify a call. But if you raise, he will almost certainly
make a large raise to put you in a very bad spot.

The second reason to not raise is that it opens the door for
the first player to reraise. It is also possible that this
player has a jack + a diamond draw. If you raise and drive
out the player behind you, or even if he calls, the first
player may then reraise, which puts you in a bad spot. If
he has a straight plus a diamond draw, you are in big
trouble because you will be in a situation of either
splitting a small pot, or losing your whole stack. It
should be apparent that raising will only be harmful to you,
since it will not cause anyone else in the hand to make a
mistake, but will put a lot of pressure on you when you get
reraised. I cannot see folding the nuts here for such a
small bet, so I must conclude that calling is the best
option. If the guy behind you calls with his flush draw and
hits it, then so be it; you will lose half the pot (you were
not going to get the whole pot to begin with), but this is
far more favorable than putting yourself in position to win
half a small pot or lose your entire 10k stack, especially
when winning half the pot will not put you in much of a
different position as you would have been had you lost it.

Finally, I want to apologize to David for not keeping with
his wishes and analyzing the hand, but everyone was doing it
already anyway, so I figured I may as well jump in, seeing
as though the integrity had already been broken.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes more sense then what I thought through, I do see now that a call could be better in this position then a large raise.

Thanks.

[eh923]

The reads provided for the "good player" might not be the same as the ones that DS provided. AKQT is a board where a lot possible strong hands exist. Perhaps he wanted to make 2 pair fold. Perhaps he was hoping for a re-raise from the middle player. Perhaps he thought he could take it down immediately with a suspiciously small bet.

There's a lot more options than just your doomsday scenario of someone free-rolling.

[Squirrel]

He doens't need the flush draw to push because just having the Jd insures him that anyone calling is making a large mistake.

He doesn't even need to KNOW what his other card is.

[Squirrel]

David producing a solution where calling is correct wouldn't shock me.

What shocks me is that people think raising is good.

[Squirrel]

What is preventing Mr. Straight from also having the nut flush draw?

[eh923]

He can put pressure on our hand without risk. However, this isn't heads up. The third person might be on a BIGGER flush draw than the bettor's. The third person might also have two-pair or a set, and is looking to fill up.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
For my sanity and for the sanity of others, please confirm that you realize the Jd is only dangerous when the other hold card is also a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

What Squirrel is saying is that your opponent can push with
the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] knowing that no matter what you have, it
will put maximum pressure on you. He knows that you cannot
have a better hand than he does, and he knows that if you
have the same hand, you will be afraid that he has a
straight and a flush draw, which will put you in a very
uncomfortable position of calling to split a small pot,
while he may be freerolling for your entire stack. If he
has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you will have a hard time calling his
push with anything. It is in this respect that the
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dangerous even when your opponent does not
have another diamond to go with it.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
He can put pressure on our hand without risk. However, this isn't heads up. The third person might be on a BIGGER flush draw than the bettor's. The third person might also have two-pair or a set, and is looking to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he will not call if the original bettor pushes in.

[Squirrel]

DS said he had a straight. (very likely)

Yes there are many other scenarios than doomsday. The problem is that the other scenarios still aren't all that promising.