#1
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($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
Some assumptions:
- Seat 9 IS in fact making a move on this pot [bastard stole my push] - Seat 5&6 have been limping, non-stop since L1 - Seat 5&6 WILL fold to a push (they both have on more than one occasion) - Blinds will be increasing in <1min Can/Do you make this call? 25+2 turbo Seat 1: (1255 in chips) <font color="blue">bluefeet (1040 in chips) </font> Seat 3: (1685 in chips) Seat 5: (2420 in chips) Seat 6: (2115 in chips) Seat 7: (1580 in chips) Seat 8: (1750 in chips) Seat 9: (1655 in chips) Seat 1: posts small blind 75 bluefeet: posts big blind 150 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to bluefeet [Ac Jh] 1 fold Seat 5: calls 150 Seat 6: calls 150 2 folds Seat 9: raises 1505 to 1655 and is all-in .....[t1415 pot available to me] 1 fold bluefeet: ??? ** No peeking before you reply! ** <font color="white"> bluefeet calls 890 and is all-in 2 folds *** FLOP *** [Kd 2h Qc] *** TURN *** [Kd 2h Qc] [Ks] *** RIVER *** [Kd 2h Qc Ks] [5c] *** SHOW DOWN *** bluefeet: shows [Ac Jh] (a pair of Kings) Seat 9: shows [4d Ah] (a pair of Kings - lower kicker) </font> |
#2
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
Well I had a response typed out which was basically saying I hate your assumption that Seat 9 is trying to steal the pot. But then I looked at the rest of the information (blinds et. al) and realized you're really damned if you do, damned if you don't. I call the push and hope to flip I guess.
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#3
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
Maybe I'm wrong, but I fold this pretty fast. I'd just wait for a chance to steal myself.
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#4
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
I think this is a great time to call. You are short stacked with a good hand blinds are about to go up. You put villain on a move, go for it.
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#5
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
Trust your reads.
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#6
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
All the extra factors add up to a pretty easy call I think. But where would you draw the line?
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#7
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
I've played quite a few $27 turbos in the last few days and think the good news is that a weak ace will show up a bunch here (weak aces are way overvalued...I'm thinkin' even moreso than on Party). I sorta like this play even though your hand is a bit weak. You really need to accumulate some chips and it will be somewhat tricky in the near future to do so (you basically need to get a push in next hand or so unless you can find a monster).
What I like best about all of this is you recognize that the pusher is making a play on the habitual limpers and are going to take advantage of it. All that being said I think I could easily fold if I think I can get my chips in first soon in a nice spot. Yugoslav PS No results....seriously. |
#8
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
[ QUOTE ]
....But where would you draw the line? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I meant to add that question. Without reads, I think TT-JJ+,AQs+ is a pretty significant gamble - one I'd still take considering my chips and that pot. If "they" are folding, and "he" is stealing, I think the AJo is pretty close to the line. ATs?? 99+??...that'd be my general feel i guess. |
#9
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
I think I could go with 99+ because your a big favorite over the A-baby hands. I don't think I can call AT here even with the reads. The Jack adds significantly to the hands you will dominate here.
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#10
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Re: ($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind
The first thing I notice is that, given the assumptions, there's 1/2 stack worth of dead chips in the pot when you call. Can you reasonably expect future fold equity--minus the chance that someone beats you into the pot when you're in good position--to be greater than these dead chips? (I'm really asking.)
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